Birkirkara vs Zabbar St. Patrick preview
Birkirkara faces Zabbar St. Patrick with a 46% chance to win compared to 27% for Zabbar St. Patrick. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 8% of the time in our model. Birkirkara's expected goals stand at 1.26, while Zabbar St. Patrick has slightly higher expected goals at 1.33.
Both teams to score has a probability of 54%, suggesting a decent chance for goals from both sides. However, Birkirkara's recent form shows they have drawn or lost in three of their last five matches, which could impact their performance. Zabbar St. Patrick has shown some inconsistency, winning two of their last five. This match could see surprises given the teams' recent performances.
Birkirkara vs Zabbar St. Patrick: model vs market
| Source | Birkirkara | Draw | Zabbar St. Patrick |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 29% | 37% |
| Market | 50% | 26% | 24% |
| Published | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Edge | -4% | +1% | +3% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.85, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -15.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Birkirkara and Zabbar St. Patrick expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.59
- Attack rating (Birkirkara / Zabbar St. Patrick)
- 0.90 / 1.32
- Defence rating (Birkirkara / Zabbar St. Patrick)
- 0.84 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Birkirkara vs Zabbar St. Patrick score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Birkirkara goals. Columns: Zabbar St. Patrick goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Birkirkara vs Zabbar St. Patrick goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Birkirkara vs Zabbar St. Patrick
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Birkirkara | 46% | 2.18 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.73 | |
| Zabbar St. Patrick | 27% | 3.67 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.09 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.86 |
| No | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Birkirkara or draw) | 73% | 1.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Zabbar St. Patrick) | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Handicap -1 | Birkirkara win by 2+ | 15% | 6.59 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Birkirkara and Zabbar St. Patrick recent form
Birkirkara
2W 2D 2L
Zabbar St. Patrick
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Birkirkara at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Zabbar St. Patrick away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Birkirkara at home only, Zabbar St. Patrick away only.
Birkirkara vs Zabbar St. Patrick head-to-head
Last 8 meetings: Birkirkara 7 · draws 0 · Zabbar St. Patrick 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Zabbar St. Patrick | 0-2 | Birkirkara | Malta Premier League |
| 2026-07-18 | Birkirkara | 2-1 | Zabbar St. Patrick | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2026-04-11 | Birkirkara | 1-0 | Zabbar St. Patrick | Malta Premier League |
| 2026-03-04 | Birkirkara | 2-1 | Zabbar St. Patrick | FA Trophy |
| 2026-02-21 | Birkirkara | 0-3 | Zabbar St. Patrick | Malta Premier League |
| 2025-10-03 | Zabbar St. Patrick | 0-2 | Birkirkara | Malta Premier League |
| 2025-02-23 | Zabbar St. Patrick | 0-3 | Birkirkara | Premier League |
| 2024-08-23 | Birkirkara | 1-0 | Zabbar St. Patrick | Premier League |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Birzebbuga vs Mosta — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Floriana vs Hibernians 2026-11-07
- Gzira United v Balzan FC — match page 2026-11-07
- Sliema Wanderers vs Valletta FC 2026-11-08
- Marsaxlokk v Hamrun Spartans — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Birkirkara, previous: Birkirkara vs Birzebbuga prediction
- Zabbar St. Patrick, previous: Zabbar St. Patrick – Mosta, 2026-10-31