Marsaxlokk vs Hamrun Spartans preview
In the Malta Premier League fixture, Marsaxlokk faces Hamrun Spartans with 31% for Marsaxlokk to win, 26% for a draw, and 43% for Hamrun Spartans. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which occurs 8% of the time in our model. The expectation for Over 2.5 goals is 61%, while both teams to score stands at 64%.
Marsaxlokk's recent form shows 3 wins and 3 losses, while Hamrun Spartans have 5 draws and 1 win in their last 6 matches. The expected goals are 1.72 for Marsaxlokk and 1.44 for Hamrun Spartans. This match could see a different outcome if either team fails to convert their scoring chances effectively.
Marsaxlokk vs Hamrun Spartans: model vs market
| Source | Marsaxlokk | Draw | Hamrun Spartans |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 25% | 31% |
| Market | 27% | 26% | 46% |
| Published | 31% | 26% | 43% |
| Edge | +4% | 0% | -4% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -14.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Marsaxlokk and Hamrun Spartans expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.16
- Attack rating (Marsaxlokk / Hamrun Spartans)
- 1.32 / 1.16
- Defence rating (Marsaxlokk / Hamrun Spartans)
- 1.03 / 0.94
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Marsaxlokk vs Hamrun Spartans score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Marsaxlokk goals. Columns: Hamrun Spartans goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Marsaxlokk vs Hamrun Spartans goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Marsaxlokk vs Hamrun Spartans
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Marsaxlokk | 31% | 3.20 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.83 | |
| Hamrun Spartans | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.57 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.57 |
| No | 36% | 2.75 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Marsaxlokk or draw) | 57% | 1.74 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Hamrun Spartans) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Handicap -1 | Hamrun Spartans win by 2+ | 15% | 6.79 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Marsaxlokk and Hamrun Spartans recent form
Marsaxlokk
3W 0D 3L
Hamrun Spartans
2W 4D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Marsaxlokk at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Hamrun Spartans away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Marsaxlokk at home only, Hamrun Spartans away only.
Marsaxlokk vs Hamrun Spartans head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Marsaxlokk 4 · draws 1 · Hamrun Spartans 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Hamrun Spartans | 4-1 | Marsaxlokk | Malta Premier League |
| 2026-05-09 | Marsaxlokk | 2-1 | Hamrun Spartans | Malta Premier League |
| 2026-04-11 | Marsaxlokk | 3-2 | Hamrun Spartans | Malta Premier League |
| 2026-02-23 | Hamrun Spartans | 2-0 | Marsaxlokk | Malta Premier League |
| 2025-12-14 | Hamrun Spartans | 1-3 | Marsaxlokk | Malta Premier League |
| 2025-09-23 | Marsaxlokk | 0-2 | Hamrun Spartans | Malta Premier League |
| 2025-04-30 | Marsaxlokk | 0-1 | Hamrun Spartans | Premier League |
| 2025-01-05 | Marsaxlokk | 1-6 | Hamrun Spartans | Premier League |
| 2024-11-02 | Hamrun Spartans | 2-3 | Marsaxlokk | Premier League |
| 2024-08-06 | Marsaxlokk | 1-1 | Hamrun Spartans | Friendlies Clubs |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Birzebbuga vs Mosta — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Floriana vs Hibernians 2026-11-07
- Gzira United v Balzan FC — match page 2026-11-07
- Birkirkara vs Zabbar St. Patrick — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Sliema Wanderers vs Valletta FC 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Marsaxlokk, previous: Gzira United vs Marsaxlokk: odds and pick
- Hamrun Spartans, previous: Sliema Wanderers vs Hamrun Spartans: odds and pick