Sliema Wanderers vs Hamrun Spartans preview
In the Malta Premier League match between Sliema Wanderers and Hamrun Spartans, the 1X2 probabilities show Sliema at 39%, a draw at 27%, and Hamrun at 34%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance according to our model. The expected goals are 1.53 for Sliema and 1.43 for Hamrun, indicating a closely matched contest.
Both teams to score stands at 61%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 57%. Sliema's recent form includes 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, while Hamrun has 4 wins and 2 draws in their last 6 matches. The confidence grade is C, suggesting that unpredictable factors could influence the outcome.
Sliema Wanderers vs Hamrun Spartans: model vs market
| Source | Sliema Wanderers | Draw | Hamrun Spartans |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 27% | 34% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 39% | 27% | 34% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Sliema Wanderers and Hamrun Spartans expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.97
- Attack rating (Sliema Wanderers / Hamrun Spartans)
- 1.12 / 1.22
- Defence rating (Sliema Wanderers / Hamrun Spartans)
- 1.00 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sliema Wanderers vs Hamrun Spartans score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sliema Wanderers goals. Columns: Hamrun Spartans goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sliema Wanderers vs Hamrun Spartans goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sliema Wanderers vs Hamrun Spartans
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sliema Wanderers | 39% | 2.57 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.75 | |
| Hamrun Spartans | 34% | 2.90 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.64 |
| No | 39% | 2.56 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sliema Wanderers or draw) | 66% | 1.53 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Hamrun Spartans) | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sliema Wanderers win by 2+ | 20% | 5.10 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sliema Wanderers and Hamrun Spartans recent form
Sliema Wanderers
3W 2D 1L
Hamrun Spartans
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sliema Wanderers at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Hamrun Spartans away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sliema Wanderers at home only, Hamrun Spartans away only.
Sliema Wanderers vs Hamrun Spartans head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Sliema Wanderers 1 · draws 0 · Hamrun Spartans 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Hamrun Spartans | 2-0 | Sliema Wanderers | Malta Premier League |
| 2026-01-10 | Hamrun Spartans | 1-0 | Sliema Wanderers | Malta Premier League |
| 2025-10-05 | Sliema Wanderers | 2-0 | Hamrun Spartans | Malta Premier League |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Balzan FC vs Hibernians 2026-10-31
- Gzira United v Marsaxlokk — match page 2026-10-31
- Birkirkara vs Birzebbuga — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Zabbar St. Patrick vs Mosta 2026-10-31
- Floriana v Valletta FC — match page 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Sliema Wanderers, previous: Sliema Wanderers – Marsaxlokk, 2026-10-24
- Hamrun Spartans, previous: Valletta FC vs Hamrun Spartans prediction