Gzira United vs Marsaxlokk preview
Gzira United faces Marsaxlokk with a 1-2 scoreline as the most likely outcome at 9%. Marsaxlokk has a 47% chance to win, compared to Gzira United's 26%. Both teams to score stands at 57%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 53%.
Gzira United's recent form shows they have struggled, with 5 winless matches (L-D-D-D-D-L). In contrast, Marsaxlokk has had a mixed run but won 2 of their last 3 matches (L-L-W-W-L-W). The expected goals are Gzira United 1.18 and Marsaxlokk 1.64, indicating a potential edge for the visitors.
Gzira United vs Marsaxlokk: model vs market
| Source | Gzira United | Draw | Marsaxlokk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26% | 27% | 47% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 26% | 27% | 47% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 1.18.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Gzira United and Marsaxlokk expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.81
- Attack rating (Gzira United / Marsaxlokk)
- 0.73 / 1.10
- Defence rating (Gzira United / Marsaxlokk)
- 1.27 / 1.16
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gzira United vs Marsaxlokk score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gzira United goals. Columns: Marsaxlokk goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gzira United vs Marsaxlokk goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gzira United vs Marsaxlokk
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gzira United | 26% | 3.81 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.74 | |
| Marsaxlokk | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.15 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.76 |
| No | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gzira United or draw) | 53% | 1.89 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Marsaxlokk) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| Handicap -1 | Marsaxlokk win by 2+ | 25% | 3.96 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Gzira United and Marsaxlokk recent form
Gzira United
0W 4D 2L
Marsaxlokk
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Gzira United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Marsaxlokk away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-3
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Gzira United at home only, Marsaxlokk away only.
Gzira United vs Marsaxlokk head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Gzira United 1 · draws 0 · Marsaxlokk 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Marsaxlokk | 2-1 | Gzira United | Malta Premier League |
| 2026-01-18 | Gzira United | 3-0 | Marsaxlokk | Malta Premier League |
| 2025-09-17 | Marsaxlokk | 2-0 | Gzira United | Malta Premier League |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Balzan FC vs Hibernians 2026-10-31
- Birkirkara vs Birzebbuga — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Zabbar St. Patrick vs Mosta 2026-10-31
- Floriana v Valletta FC — match page 2026-10-31
- Sliema Wanderers vs Hamrun Spartans — team news & stats 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Gzira United, previous: Gzira United v Birzebbuga analysis
- Marsaxlokk, previous: Sliema Wanderers – Marsaxlokk, 2026-10-24