Zabbar St. Patrick vs Mosta preview
In the Malta Premier League fixture between Zabbar St. Patrick and Mosta, the 1X2 probabilities show Zabbar St. Patrick at 41%, Mosta at 33%, and a draw at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. The model suggests a strong possibility for Over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams to score at 64%.
Zabbar St. Patrick's recent form includes 1 win and 4 losses, while Mosta has 2 draws and 4 losses in their last 6 matches. The expected goals are 1.67 for Zabbar St. Patrick and 1.48 for Mosta. A surprise could come if either team performs significantly below their expected goals or if the match ends in a draw, which is less likely but still possible given the recent form.
Zabbar St. Patrick vs Mosta: model vs market
| Source | Zabbar St. Patrick | Draw | Mosta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 26% | 33% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 41% | 26% | 33% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Zabbar St. Patrick and Mosta expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.15
- Attack rating (Zabbar St. Patrick / Mosta)
- 1.04 / 1.05
- Defence rating (Zabbar St. Patrick / Mosta)
- 1.21 / 1.15
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Zabbar St. Patrick vs Mosta score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Zabbar St. Patrick goals. Columns: Mosta goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Zabbar St. Patrick vs Mosta goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Zabbar St. Patrick vs Mosta
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Zabbar St. Patrick | 41% | 2.42 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.90 | |
| Mosta | 33% | 3.02 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.57 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.57 |
| No | 36% | 2.76 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Zabbar St. Patrick or draw) | 67% | 1.50 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Mosta) | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Handicap -1 | Zabbar St. Patrick win by 2+ | 22% | 4.58 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Zabbar St. Patrick and Mosta recent form
Zabbar St. Patrick
1W 1D 4L
Mosta
0W 4D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Zabbar St. Patrick at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mosta away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-0
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Zabbar St. Patrick at home only, Mosta away only.
Zabbar St. Patrick vs Mosta head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Zabbar St. Patrick 1 · draws 2 · Mosta 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | Mosta | 2-1 | Zabbar St. Patrick | Malta Premier League |
| 2026-03-07 | Zabbar St. Patrick | 5-3 | Mosta | Malta Premier League |
| 2025-12-12 | Mosta | 1-1 | Zabbar St. Patrick | Malta Premier League |
| 2025-10-24 | Mosta | 1-1 | Zabbar St. Patrick | Malta Premier League |
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Before and after this match
- Zabbar St. Patrick, previous: Floriana vs Zabbar St. Patrick: odds and pick
- Mosta, previous: Mosta vs Hibernians prediction