Floriana vs Valletta FC preview
Floriana faces Valletta FC with a 40% chance for Valletta to win and a 35% chance for Floriana. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with Valletta FC expected to score 1.75 goals compared to Floriana's 1.64. Both teams have shown strong attacking form, leading to a 66% probability of Over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance for both teams to score.
However, recent performances could influence the outcome. Valletta FC has won 5 of their last 6 matches, while Floriana has drawn 3 of their last 5. The head-to-head record shows 1 win each and 3 draws in their last 5 meetings, indicating that Floriana could still pose a challenge despite their recent form.
Floriana vs Valletta FC: model vs market
| Source | Floriana | Draw | Valletta FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 25% | 40% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 35% | 25% | 40% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Floriana and Valletta FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.40
- Attack rating (Floriana / Valletta FC)
- 1.43 / 1.33
- Defence rating (Floriana / Valletta FC)
- 1.12 / 0.83
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Floriana vs Valletta FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Floriana goals. Columns: Valletta FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Floriana vs Valletta FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Floriana vs Valletta FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Floriana | 35% | 2.82 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.07 | |
| Valletta FC | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.94 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.48 |
| No | 32% | 3.09 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Floriana or draw) | 60% | 1.67 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Valletta FC) | 65% | 1.55 | |
| Handicap -1 | Valletta FC win by 2+ | 21% | 4.67 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Floriana and Valletta FC recent form
Floriana
2W 3D 1L
Valletta FC
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Floriana at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 2.40
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
Valletta FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.40
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Floriana at home only, Valletta FC away only.
Floriana vs Valletta FC head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Floriana 1 · draws 3 · Valletta FC 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Valletta FC | 0-0 | Floriana | Malta Premier League |
| 2026-04-18 | Floriana | 2-0 | Valletta FC | Malta Premier League |
| 2026-02-04 | Valletta FC | 0-0 | Floriana | Malta Premier League |
| 2026-01-10 | Floriana | 0-0 | Valletta FC | Malta Premier League |
| 2025-09-16 | Floriana | 0-2 | Valletta FC | Malta Premier League |
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- Birkirkara vs Birzebbuga — team news & stats 2026-10-31
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Before and after this match
- Floriana, previous: Floriana vs Zabbar St. Patrick: odds and pick
- Valletta FC, previous: Valletta FC vs Hamrun Spartans prediction