Sliema Wanderers vs Valletta FC preview
In the Malta Premier League fixture between Sliema Wanderers and Valletta FC, the 1X2 probabilities show Valletta FC at 41%, Sliema Wanderers at 31%, and a draw at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 9% chance. Both teams to score stands at 55%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 50%.
Sliema Wanderers have a recent form of D-W-W-L-D-D, while Valletta FC has been strong, winning their last 6 matches. Expected goals are 1.22 for Sliema Wanderers and 1.44 for Valletta FC. A surprise could come from Sliema's head-to-head advantage, with 5 wins in the last 10 encounters against Valletta FC, which may impact the outcome.
Sliema Wanderers vs Valletta FC: model vs market
| Source | Sliema Wanderers | Draw | Valletta FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 28% | 41% |
| Market | 28% | 28% | 45% |
| Published | 29% | 28% | 44% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.04, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Sliema Wanderers and Valletta FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.66
- Attack rating (Sliema Wanderers / Valletta FC)
- 1.08 / 1.22
- Defence rating (Sliema Wanderers / Valletta FC)
- 0.98 / 0.82
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sliema Wanderers vs Valletta FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sliema Wanderers goals. Columns: Valletta FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sliema Wanderers vs Valletta FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sliema Wanderers vs Valletta FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sliema Wanderers | 29% | 3.50 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.60 | |
| Valletta FC | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 1.98 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.82 |
| No | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sliema Wanderers or draw) | 56% | 1.78 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Valletta FC) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| Handicap -1 | Valletta FC win by 2+ | 20% | 4.96 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sliema Wanderers and Valletta FC recent form
Sliema Wanderers
2W 3D 1L
Valletta FC
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sliema Wanderers at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Valletta FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.17
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 6
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sliema Wanderers at home only, Valletta FC away only.
Sliema Wanderers vs Valletta FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Sliema Wanderers 5 · draws 2 · Valletta FC 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Valletta FC | 2-1 | Sliema Wanderers | Malta Premier League |
| 2026-02-21 | Valletta FC | 0-1 | Sliema Wanderers | Malta Premier League |
| 2025-12-14 | Valletta FC | 1-2 | Sliema Wanderers | Malta Premier League |
| 2025-09-21 | Sliema Wanderers | 1-1 | Valletta FC | Malta Premier League |
| 2025-07-19 | Sliema Wanderers | 2-1 | Valletta FC | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2024-02-03 | Valletta FC | 1-1 | Sliema Wanderers | Premier League |
| 2023-09-24 | Sliema Wanderers | 1-0 | Valletta FC | Premier League |
| 2022-04-10 | Valletta FC | 3-1 | Sliema Wanderers | Premier League |
| 2022-02-26 | Valletta FC | 1-0 | Sliema Wanderers | Premier League |
| 2021-11-20 | Sliema Wanderers | 2-1 | Valletta FC | Premier League |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Birzebbuga vs Mosta — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Floriana vs Hibernians 2026-11-07
- Gzira United v Balzan FC — match page 2026-11-07
- Birkirkara vs Zabbar St. Patrick — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Marsaxlokk v Hamrun Spartans — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Sliema Wanderers, previous: Sliema Wanderers vs Hamrun Spartans: odds and pick
- Valletta FC, previous: Floriana v Valletta FC analysis