Gzira United vs Balzan FC preview
Gzira United faces Balzan FC with a 24% chance of winning compared to Balzan's 48%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which reflects Balzan's expected goals of 1.59 against Gzira's 1.06. While the probability for both teams to score stands at 53%, Gzira's recent form shows no wins in their last six matches, which could impact their performance.
Balzan FC has also struggled lately, with four losses in their last six games. The expectation for Over 2.5 goals is at 49%, indicating a close match where scoring may be limited. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome despite Balzan's stronger position.
Gzira United vs Balzan FC: model vs market
| Source | Gzira United | Draw | Balzan FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24% | 27% | 48% |
| Market | 29% | 28% | 43% |
| Published | 28% | 28% | 44% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.59 vs 1.06.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.25, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Gzira United vs Balzan FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Balzan FC, 2 snapshots since 2026-11-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gzira United | 3.05 | 3.08 | +0.03 |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.25 | +0.00 |
| Balzan FC | 2.24 | 2.08 | -0.16 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Gzira United and Balzan FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.65
- Attack rating (Gzira United / Balzan FC)
- 0.74 / 0.88
- Defence rating (Gzira United / Balzan FC)
- 1.51 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gzira United vs Balzan FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gzira United goals. Columns: Balzan FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gzira United vs Balzan FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gzira United vs Balzan FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gzira United | 28% | 3.58 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.63 | |
| Balzan FC | 44% | 2.25 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.98 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.88 |
| No | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gzira United or draw) | 56% | 1.80 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Balzan FC) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Handicap -1 | Balzan FC win by 2+ | 26% | 3.86 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Gzira United and Balzan FC recent form
Gzira United
0W 4D 2L
Balzan FC
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Gzira United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-4-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 2.17
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 0 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Balzan FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Gzira United at home only, Balzan FC away only.
Gzira United vs Balzan FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Gzira United 2 · draws 3 · Balzan FC 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Balzan FC | 2-1 | Gzira United | Malta Premier League |
| 2026-07-17 | Balzan FC | 1-0 | Gzira United | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2025-04-04 | Gzira United | 0-0 | Balzan FC | Premier League |
| 2025-03-28 | Gzira United | 0-0 | Balzan FC | Premier League |
| 2024-12-15 | Gzira United | 2-1 | Balzan FC | Premier League |
| 2024-10-03 | Balzan FC | 2-1 | Gzira United | Premier League |
| 2024-02-04 | Gzira United | 1-1 | Balzan FC | Premier League |
| 2023-09-23 | Balzan FC | 1-0 | Gzira United | Premier League |
| 2023-04-15 | Balzan FC | 0-2 | Gzira United | Premier League |
| 2022-12-03 | Gzira United | 0-1 | Balzan FC | Premier League |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Birzebbuga vs Mosta — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Floriana vs Hibernians 2026-11-07
- Birkirkara vs Zabbar St. Patrick — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Sliema Wanderers vs Valletta FC 2026-11-08
- Marsaxlokk v Hamrun Spartans — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Gzira United, previous: Gzira United vs Marsaxlokk: odds and pick
- Balzan FC, previous: Balzan FC v Hibernians analysis