Floriana vs Hibernians preview
In the Malta Premier League fixture between Floriana and Hibernians, the 1X2 probabilities show Floriana at 47%, Hibernians at 28%, and a draw at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance according to our model. Floriana's expected goals stand at 1.82, while Hibernians have 1.36.
Floriana's recent form includes 1 win and 4 draws, while Hibernians have 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 6 matches. Both teams to score is at 63%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 62%. These figures indicate potential for a high-scoring match, but the recent form of Floriana could impact their performance.
Floriana vs Hibernians: model vs market
| Source | Floriana | Draw | Hibernians |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 25% | 28% |
| Market | 47% | 27% | 27% |
| Published | 47% | 26% | 27% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 1.36.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Floriana vs Hibernians odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Floriana, 2 snapshots since 2026-11-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Floriana | 1.84 | 1.94 | +0.10 |
| Draw | 3.55 | 3.38 | -0.17 |
| Hibernians | 3.90 | 3.38 | -0.52 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Floriana and Hibernians expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.18
- Attack rating (Floriana / Hibernians)
- 1.23 / 0.99
- Defence rating (Floriana / Hibernians)
- 1.14 / 1.07
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Floriana vs Hibernians score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Floriana goals. Columns: Hibernians goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Floriana vs Hibernians goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Floriana vs Hibernians
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Floriana | 47% | 2.14 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.80 | |
| Hibernians | 27% | 3.72 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.60 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.58 |
| No | 37% | 2.72 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Floriana or draw) | 73% | 1.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Hibernians) | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Handicap -1 | Floriana win by 2+ | 27% | 3.74 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Floriana and Hibernians recent form
Floriana
1W 3D 2L
Hibernians
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Floriana at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-3
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.86
- Goals against / match
- 1.86
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
Hibernians away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Floriana at home only, Hibernians away only.
Floriana vs Hibernians head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Floriana 7 · draws 2 · Hibernians 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Hibernians | 0-4 | Floriana | Malta Premier League |
| 2026-02-22 | Floriana | 4-1 | Hibernians | Malta Premier League |
| 2025-10-03 | Hibernians | 0-1 | Floriana | Malta Premier League |
| 2025-03-29 | Floriana | 1-1 | Hibernians | Premier League |
| 2024-11-30 | Floriana | 2-0 | Hibernians | Premier League |
| 2024-09-22 | Floriana | 1-1 | Hibernians | Premier League |
| 2024-02-10 | Hibernians | 0-2 | Floriana | Premier League |
| 2023-09-26 | Floriana | 2-0 | Hibernians | Premier League |
| 2023-08-04 | Hibernians | 0-2 | Floriana | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2023-04-21 | Floriana | 2-5 | Hibernians | Premier League |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Birzebbuga vs Mosta — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Gzira United v Balzan FC — match page 2026-11-07
- Birkirkara vs Zabbar St. Patrick — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Sliema Wanderers vs Valletta FC 2026-11-08
- Marsaxlokk v Hamrun Spartans — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Floriana, previous: Floriana v Valletta FC analysis
- Hibernians, previous: Balzan FC v Hibernians analysis