Birkirkara vs Floriana preview
In the Malta Premier League fixture between Birkirkara and Floriana, the 1X2 probabilities show Birkirkara at 33%, Floriana at 38%, and a draw at 30%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, which has a 10% chance of occurring.
Both teams have mixed recent form, with Birkirkara recording 2 wins in their last 5 matches and Floriana achieving 4 wins in the same period. The expected goals are 1.18 for Birkirkara and 1.28 for Floriana, indicating a close contest. While there is a 51% chance for both teams to score, the prediction could be affected by Birkirkara's struggle against Floriana in their last 3 meetings, where they have not secured a win.
Birkirkara vs Floriana: model vs market
| Source | Birkirkara | Draw | Floriana |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28% | 29% | 43% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 28% | 29% | 43% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 1.10.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Birkirkara and Floriana expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.53
- Attack rating (Birkirkara / Floriana)
- 0.75 / 1.41
- Defence rating (Birkirkara / Floriana)
- 0.87 / 1.07
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Birkirkara vs Floriana score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Birkirkara goals. Columns: Floriana goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Birkirkara vs Floriana goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Birkirkara vs Floriana
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Birkirkara | 28% | 3.61 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.46 | |
| Floriana | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.16 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.92 |
| No | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Birkirkara or draw) | 57% | 1.77 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Floriana) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| Handicap -1 | Floriana win by 2+ | 22% | 4.63 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Birkirkara and Floriana recent form
Birkirkara
1W 1D 4L
Floriana
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Birkirkara at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Floriana away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Birkirkara at home only, Floriana away only.
Birkirkara vs Floriana head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Birkirkara 0 · draws 1 · Floriana 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Birkirkara | 2-2 | Floriana | Malta Premier League |
| 2025-12-13 | Floriana | 2-0 | Birkirkara | Malta Premier League |
| 2025-10-25 | Floriana | 2-0 | Birkirkara | Malta Premier League |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Hamrun Spartans vs Balzan FC 2026-10-21
- Birzebbuga vs Marsaxlokk — team news & stats 2026-10-21
- Zabbar St. Patrick v Sliema Wanderers — match page 2026-10-21
- Mosta v Valletta FC — match page 2026-10-21
- Hibernians vs Gzira United 2026-10-22
Before and after this match
- Birkirkara, previous: Marsaxlokk v Birkirkara analysis
- Floriana, previous: Floriana vs Mosta prediction