Hamrun Spartans vs Balzan FC preview
In the Malta Premier League fixture between Hamrun Spartans and Balzan FC, the 1X2 probabilities show Hamrun Spartans at 44%, while both teams are tied at 28% for a draw or Balzan FC win. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 10% chance. The expected goals are 1.48 for Hamrun Spartans and 1.14 for Balzan FC, indicating a slight edge for the home side.
The model suggests a 49% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 54% probability for both teams to score. However, the recent form shows Hamrun Spartans with mixed results (D-W-W-W-D-L) compared to Balzan FC's more consistent draws (D-D-D-W-W-L). This could impact the match outcome, making predictions less certain.
Hamrun Spartans vs Balzan FC: model vs market
| Source | Hamrun Spartans | Draw | Balzan FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 1.14.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Hamrun Spartans and Balzan FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.63
- Attack rating (Hamrun Spartans / Balzan FC)
- 1.26 / 1.05
- Defence rating (Hamrun Spartans / Balzan FC)
- 0.93 / 0.86
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Hamrun Spartans vs Balzan FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Hamrun Spartans goals. Columns: Balzan FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Hamrun Spartans vs Balzan FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Hamrun Spartans vs Balzan FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hamrun Spartans | 44% | 2.27 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.54 | |
| Balzan FC | 28% | 3.60 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.05 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.86 |
| No | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Hamrun Spartans or draw) | 72% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Balzan FC) | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Handicap -1 | Hamrun Spartans win by 2+ | 22% | 4.47 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Hamrun Spartans and Balzan FC recent form
Hamrun Spartans
3W 2D 1L
Balzan FC
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Hamrun Spartans at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Balzan FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Hamrun Spartans at home only, Balzan FC away only.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Birzebbuga vs Marsaxlokk — team news & stats 2026-10-21
- Zabbar St. Patrick v Sliema Wanderers — match page 2026-10-21
- Mosta v Valletta FC — match page 2026-10-21
- Birkirkara vs Floriana — team news & stats 2026-10-22
- Hibernians vs Gzira United 2026-10-22
Before and after this match
- Hamrun Spartans, previous: Gzira United – Hamrun Spartans, 2026-10-18
- Balzan FC, previous: Balzan FC vs Zabbar St. Patrick prediction