Mosta vs Valletta FC preview
In the upcoming match between Mosta and Valletta FC, the 1X2 probabilities show Valletta FC at 40%, compared to Mosta's 34%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance of occurring. Valletta FC has a recent form of W-W-D-W-L-W, while Mosta has D-D-L-D-W-W.
The model predicts a 56% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance for both teams to score. Mosta's expected goals stand at 1.41, slightly lower than Valletta FC's 1.54. However, if Mosta can improve their form or if Valletta FC's performance dips, the predictions could change.
Mosta vs Valletta FC: model vs market
| Source | Mosta | Draw | Valletta FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 27% | 41% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 33% | 27% | 41% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Mosta and Valletta FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.97
- Attack rating (Mosta / Valletta FC)
- 1.08 / 1.29
- Defence rating (Mosta / Valletta FC)
- 1.05 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Mosta vs Valletta FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Mosta goals. Columns: Valletta FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Mosta vs Valletta FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Mosta vs Valletta FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mosta | 33% | 3.05 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.76 | |
| Valletta FC | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.65 |
| No | 39% | 2.55 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Mosta or draw) | 59% | 1.68 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Valletta FC) | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Handicap -1 | Valletta FC win by 2+ | 21% | 4.80 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Mosta and Valletta FC recent form
Mosta
2W 3D 1L
Valletta FC
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Mosta at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Valletta FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Mosta at home only, Valletta FC away only.
Mosta vs Valletta FC head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Mosta 0 · draws 0 · Valletta FC 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-16 | Mosta | 0-5 | Valletta FC | Malta Premier League |
| 2025-09-24 | Valletta FC | 4-1 | Mosta | Malta Premier League |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Hamrun Spartans vs Balzan FC 2026-10-21
- Birzebbuga vs Marsaxlokk — team news & stats 2026-10-21
- Zabbar St. Patrick v Sliema Wanderers — match page 2026-10-21
- Birkirkara vs Floriana — team news & stats 2026-10-22
- Hibernians vs Gzira United 2026-10-22
Before and after this match
- Mosta, previous: Floriana vs Mosta prediction
- Valletta FC, previous: Valletta FC – Sliema Wanderers, 2026-10-17