Floriana vs Mosta preview
In the Malta Premier League fixture between Floriana and Mosta, the 1X2 probabilities show Floriana at 39% and Mosta at 36%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs 8% of the time according to our model. With 66% for Over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, there is a strong chance of a high-scoring match.
Floriana's recent form includes 2 wins and 3 draws, while Mosta has been more consistent with 5 wins and 1 draw. The expected goals are close, with Floriana at 1.74 and Mosta at 1.67. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating that unexpected outcomes are possible.
Floriana vs Mosta: model vs market
| Source | Floriana | Draw | Mosta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 23% | 24% |
| Market | 55% | 25% | 21% |
| Published | 54% | 24% | 22% |
| Edge | -2% | -1% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.05 vs 1.34.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.67, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Floriana vs Mosta odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Floriana, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-16.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Floriana | 1.65 | 1.65 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.69 | -0.01 |
| Mosta | 4.40 | 4.35 | -0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Floriana and Mosta expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.39
- Attack rating (Floriana / Mosta)
- 1.41 / 1.08
- Defence rating (Floriana / Mosta)
- 1.07 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Floriana vs Mosta score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Floriana goals. Columns: Mosta goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Floriana vs Mosta goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Floriana vs Mosta
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Floriana | 54% | 1.84 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.13 | |
| Mosta | 22% | 4.63 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.92 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.53 |
| No | 35% | 2.88 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Floriana or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Mosta) | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Handicap -1 | Floriana win by 2+ | 32% | 3.14 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Floriana and Mosta recent form
Floriana
3W 2D 1L
Mosta
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Floriana at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
Mosta away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Floriana at home only, Mosta away only.
Floriana vs Mosta head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Floriana 9 · draws 1 · Mosta 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | Floriana | 2-1 | Mosta | Malta Premier League |
| 2025-09-27 | Mosta | 0-1 | Floriana | Malta Premier League |
| 2025-04-27 | Floriana | 3-0 | Mosta | Premier League |
| 2025-03-05 | Floriana | 2-0 | Mosta | FA Trophy |
| 2025-03-02 | Floriana | 2-2 | Mosta | Premier League |
| 2024-11-23 | Floriana | 1-0 | Mosta | Premier League |
| 2024-10-11 | Mosta | 1-2 | Floriana | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2024-10-03 | Mosta | 0-2 | Floriana | Premier League |
| 2024-04-13 | Floriana | 4-0 | Mosta | Premier League |
| 2023-12-09 | Mosta | 0-3 | Floriana | Premier League |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Marsaxlokk vs Birkirkara — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Valletta FC vs Sliema Wanderers — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Balzan FC vs Zabbar St. Patrick 2026-10-17
- Gzira United v Hamrun Spartans — match page 2026-10-18
- Hibernians vs Birzebbuga 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Floriana, previous: Floriana v Balzan FC analysis
- Floriana, next: Birkirkara vs Floriana prediction
- Mosta, previous: Gzira United vs Mosta: odds and pick
- Mosta, next: Mosta v Valletta FC analysis