Updated

Malta Premier League · Matchday 8

Balzan FC vs Zabbar St. Patrick

· Tony Bezzina Stadium, Paola· Referee E. Barbara

Full time1 – 2

Alin prediction was Balzan FC to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Balzan FCDrawZabbar St. Patrick

Balzan FC vs Zabbar St. Patrick: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBalzan FCDrawZabbar St. Patrick
Model53%27%20%
Market37%29%35%
Published41%28%31%
Edge+16%-2%-15%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 0.90.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Balzan FC below the model: +16.5 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Balzan FC vs Zabbar St. Patrick odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Balzan FC, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-15.

Opened 2.15Now 2.45 +0.30
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Balzan FC2.152.45+0.30
Draw3.253.15-0.10
Zabbar St. Patrick2.992.61-0.38

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Balzan FC and Zabbar St. Patrick expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.63Balzan FC
0.90Zabbar St. Patrick
Total expected goals
2.52
Attack rating (Balzan FC / Zabbar St. Patrick)
1.05 / 0.91
Defence rating (Balzan FC / Zabbar St. Patrick)
0.86 / 1.12

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Balzan FC vs Zabbar St. Patrick score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.2% 6.0% 3.2% 1.0% 0.3% 1 11.9% 12.9% 5.3% 1.6% 0.4% 2 10.6% 9.5% 4.3% 1.3% 0.3% 3 5.7% 5.2% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2% 4+ 3.4% 3.0% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: Balzan FC goals. Columns: Zabbar St. Patrick goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Balzan FC vs Zabbar St. Patrick goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 73%
Over 2.5 46%
Over 3.5 25%
Both teams to score
49%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Balzan FC vs Zabbar St. Patrick

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Balzan FC41%2.44
Draw28%3.54
Zabbar St. Patrick31%3.24
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.546%2.16
Under 2.554%1.86
Both teams to scoreYes49%2.05
No51%1.95
Double chance1X (Balzan FC or draw)69%1.45
12 (either side)72%1.39
X2 (draw or Zabbar St. Patrick)59%1.69
Handicap -1Balzan FC win by 2+29%3.41
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Balzan FC and Zabbar St. Patrick recent form

Balzan FC 2W 3D 1L
Zabbar St. Patrick 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Balzan FC at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

Zabbar St. Patrick away

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.75
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Balzan FC at home only, Zabbar St. Patrick away only.

Balzan FC vs Zabbar St. Patrick head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Balzan FC 0 · draws 1 · Zabbar St. Patrick 3.

Balzan FCDrawsZabbar St. Patrick
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-04-19Zabbar St. Patrick2-2Balzan FCPremier League
2025-01-25Zabbar St. Patrick3-0Balzan FCPremier League
2024-12-01Balzan FC1-2Zabbar St. PatrickPremier League
2024-09-16Balzan FC0-2Zabbar St. PatrickPremier League

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match