Gzira United vs Hamrun Spartans preview
In the Malta Premier League fixture between Gzira United and Hamrun Spartans, the 1X2 probabilities show Hamrun Spartans at 42% to win, compared to Gzira United's 28% and a draw at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a probability of 11%. Gzira United has struggled recently, with 5 losses in their last 6 matches, while Hamrun Spartans has had mixed results, including 2 draws and a win.
The model indicates a 42% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance for both teams to score. Gzira United's expected goals stand at 1.04, while Hamrun Spartans has a higher expectation of 1.33. The recent head-to-head record favors Gzira United, with 1 win and 2 draws in the last 3 encounters, despite their current form.
Gzira United vs Hamrun Spartans: model vs market
| Source | Gzira United | Draw | Hamrun Spartans |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16% | 26% | 58% |
| Market | 12% | 20% | 68% |
| Published | 13% | 21% | 66% |
| Edge | +4% | +5% | -10% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 0.81.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.47, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Gzira United vs Hamrun Spartans odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Hamrun Spartans, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-16.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gzira United | 5.61 | 7.58 | +1.97 |
| Draw | 3.94 | 4.50 | +0.56 |
| Hamrun Spartans | 1.47 | 1.33 | -0.14 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Gzira United and Hamrun Spartans expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.55
- Attack rating (Gzira United / Hamrun Spartans)
- 0.63 / 1.26
- Defence rating (Gzira United / Hamrun Spartans)
- 1.19 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gzira United vs Hamrun Spartans score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gzira United goals. Columns: Hamrun Spartans goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gzira United vs Hamrun Spartans goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gzira United vs Hamrun Spartans
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gzira United | 13% | 7.73 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.67 | |
| Hamrun Spartans | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.13 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.13 |
| No | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gzira United or draw) | 34% | 2.91 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Hamrun Spartans) | 87% | 1.15 | |
| Handicap -1 | Hamrun Spartans win by 2+ | 34% | 2.95 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Gzira United and Hamrun Spartans recent form
Gzira United
0W 3D 3L
Hamrun Spartans
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Gzira United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Hamrun Spartans away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Gzira United at home only, Hamrun Spartans away only.
Gzira United vs Hamrun Spartans head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Gzira United 2 · draws 2 · Hamrun Spartans 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | Hamrun Spartans | 0-1 | Gzira United | Malta Premier League |
| 2026-02-03 | Gzira United | 0-0 | Hamrun Spartans | Malta Premier League |
| 2025-09-20 | Hamrun Spartans | 0-0 | Gzira United | Malta Premier League |
| 2025-03-02 | Hamrun Spartans | 0-1 | Gzira United | Premier League |
| 2024-11-07 | Gzira United | 1-2 | Hamrun Spartans | Premier League |
| 2024-04-13 | Gzira United | 0-1 | Hamrun Spartans | Premier League |
| 2023-12-13 | Hamrun Spartans | 2-1 | Gzira United | Premier League |
| 2023-03-11 | Hamrun Spartans | 1-0 | Gzira United | Premier League |
| 2022-10-30 | Gzira United | 1-2 | Hamrun Spartans | Premier League |
| 2022-04-24 | Hamrun Spartans | 2-0 | Gzira United | Premier League |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Marsaxlokk vs Birkirkara — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Valletta FC vs Sliema Wanderers — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Balzan FC vs Zabbar St. Patrick 2026-10-17
- Hibernians vs Birzebbuga 2026-10-18
- Floriana v Mosta — match page 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Gzira United, previous: Gzira United vs Mosta: odds and pick
- Gzira United, next: Hibernians v Gzira United analysis
- Hamrun Spartans, previous: Hamrun Spartans – Hibernians, 2026-10-11
- Hamrun Spartans, next: Hamrun Spartans – Balzan FC, 2026-10-21