Valletta FC vs Sliema Wanderers: model vs market
| Source | Valletta FC | Draw | Sliema Wanderers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 28% | 24% |
| Market | 49% | 29% | 22% |
| Published | 49% | 29% | 22% |
| Edge | -1% | -1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.56 vs 1.03.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Valletta FC vs Sliema Wanderers odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Valletta FC, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-15.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valletta FC | 2.29 | 1.83 | -0.46 |
| Draw | 3.07 | 3.10 | +0.03 |
| Sliema Wanderers | 2.91 | 4.18 | +1.27 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Valletta FC and Sliema Wanderers expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.59
- Attack rating (Valletta FC / Sliema Wanderers)
- 1.26 / 0.94
- Defence rating (Valletta FC / Sliema Wanderers)
- 0.94 / 0.90
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Valletta FC vs Sliema Wanderers score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Valletta FC goals. Columns: Sliema Wanderers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Valletta FC vs Sliema Wanderers goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Valletta FC vs Sliema Wanderers
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Valletta FC | 49% | 2.04 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.48 | |
| Sliema Wanderers | 22% | 4.51 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.09 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.92 |
| No | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Valletta FC or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Sliema Wanderers) | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Handicap -1 | Valletta FC win by 2+ | 26% | 3.91 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Valletta FC and Sliema Wanderers recent form
Valletta FC
4W 1D 1L
Sliema Wanderers
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Valletta FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
Sliema Wanderers away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Valletta FC at home only, Sliema Wanderers away only.
Valletta FC vs Sliema Wanderers head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Valletta FC 2 · draws 3 · Sliema Wanderers 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Valletta FC | 0-1 | Sliema Wanderers | Malta Premier League |
| 2025-12-14 | Valletta FC | 1-2 | Sliema Wanderers | Malta Premier League |
| 2025-09-21 | Sliema Wanderers | 1-1 | Valletta FC | Malta Premier League |
| 2025-07-19 | Sliema Wanderers | 2-1 | Valletta FC | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2024-02-03 | Valletta FC | 1-1 | Sliema Wanderers | Premier League |
| 2023-09-24 | Sliema Wanderers | 1-0 | Valletta FC | Premier League |
| 2022-04-10 | Valletta FC | 3-1 | Sliema Wanderers | Premier League |
| 2022-02-26 | Valletta FC | 1-0 | Sliema Wanderers | Premier League |
| 2021-11-20 | Sliema Wanderers | 2-1 | Valletta FC | Premier League |
| 2021-02-03 | Valletta FC | 0-0 | Sliema Wanderers | Premier League |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Marsaxlokk vs Birkirkara — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Balzan FC vs Zabbar St. Patrick 2026-10-17
- Gzira United v Hamrun Spartans — match page 2026-10-18
- Hibernians vs Birzebbuga 2026-10-18
- Floriana v Mosta — match page 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Valletta FC, previous: Birkirkara vs Valletta FC prediction
- Valletta FC, next: Mosta v Valletta FC analysis
- Sliema Wanderers, previous: Sliema Wanderers vs Gzira United: odds and pick
- Sliema Wanderers, next: Zabbar St. Patrick vs Sliema Wanderers: odds and pick