Gzira United vs Birzebbuga preview
In the Malta Premier League fixture between Gzira United and Birzebbuga, the 1X2 probabilities show Gzira United at 48%, while Birzebbuga sits at 22%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 14% chance according to our model. Gzira United has an expected goals figure of 1.38, compared to Birzebbuga's 0.84.
However, the match could see different outcomes. Both teams to score stands at 44%, indicating a reasonable chance for each side to find the net. Gzira United's recent form includes four draws and two losses, while Birzebbuga has lost six straight matches. This could impact their performance and the overall match dynamics.
Gzira United vs Birzebbuga: model vs market
| Source | Gzira United | Draw | Birzebbuga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 31% | 29% |
| Market | 39% | 28% | 33% |
| Published | 39% | 29% | 32% |
| Edge | 0% | +1% | -1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Gzira United vs Birzebbuga odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Gzira United, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-24.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gzira United | 2.35 | 2.35 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.25 | +0.00 |
| Birzebbuga | 2.75 | 2.75 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Gzira United and Birzebbuga expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.29
- Attack rating (Gzira United / Birzebbuga)
- 0.73 / 0.70
- Defence rating (Gzira United / Birzebbuga)
- 1.27 / 1.23
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gzira United vs Birzebbuga score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gzira United goals. Columns: Birzebbuga goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gzira United vs Birzebbuga goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gzira United vs Birzebbuga
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gzira United | 39% | 2.56 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.48 | |
| Birzebbuga | 32% | 3.10 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.49 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.11 |
| No | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gzira United or draw) | 68% | 1.48 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Birzebbuga) | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Handicap -1 | Gzira United win by 2+ | 18% | 5.52 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Gzira United and Birzebbuga recent form
Gzira United
0W 4D 2L
Birzebbuga
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Gzira United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Birzebbuga away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Gzira United at home only, Birzebbuga away only.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Sliema Wanderers vs Marsaxlokk — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Valletta FC vs Hamrun Spartans 2026-10-25
- Balzan FC v Birkirkara — match page 2026-10-25
- Floriana vs Zabbar St. Patrick 2026-10-26
- Mosta v Hibernians — match page 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Gzira United, previous: Hibernians v Gzira United analysis
- Birzebbuga, previous: Birzebbuga vs Marsaxlokk: odds and pick