Floriana vs Zabbar St. Patrick preview
In the Malta Premier League fixture between Floriana and Zabbar St. Patrick, the model gives Floriana a 58% chance to win, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1 at 9%. The expectation for Over 2.5 goals is strong at 69%, and both teams to score stands at 66%.
Floriana's recent form shows 2 wins and 3 draws, while Zabbar St. Patrick has 1 win and 4 draws in their last 6 matches. Although Floriana has a solid head-to-head record with 2 wins against Zabbar St. Patrick, the confidence grade is C, indicating that unexpected outcomes could occur, particularly if Zabbar St. Patrick improves their form.
Floriana vs Zabbar St. Patrick: model vs market
| Source | Floriana | Draw | Zabbar St. Patrick |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59% | 20% | 20% |
| Market | 59% | 23% | 18% |
| Published | 59% | 22% | 18% |
| Edge | 0% | -1% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.39 vs 1.38.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.55, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Floriana vs Zabbar St. Patrick odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Floriana, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-24.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Floriana | 1.56 | 1.51 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 3.82 | 3.90 | +0.08 |
| Zabbar St. Patrick | 4.75 | 5.05 | +0.30 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Floriana and Zabbar St. Patrick expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.77
- Attack rating (Floriana / Zabbar St. Patrick)
- 1.43 / 1.04
- Defence rating (Floriana / Zabbar St. Patrick)
- 1.12 / 1.21
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Floriana vs Zabbar St. Patrick score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Floriana goals. Columns: Zabbar St. Patrick goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Floriana vs Zabbar St. Patrick goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Floriana vs Zabbar St. Patrick
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Floriana | 59% | 1.69 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.48 | |
| Zabbar St. Patrick | 18% | 5.45 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73% | 1.38 |
| Under 2.5 | 27% | 3.65 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.46 |
| No | 31% | 3.19 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Floriana or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Zabbar St. Patrick) | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Handicap -1 | Floriana win by 2+ | 39% | 2.58 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Floriana and Zabbar St. Patrick recent form
Floriana
2W 3D 1L
Zabbar St. Patrick
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Floriana at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 2.40
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
Zabbar St. Patrick away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Floriana at home only, Zabbar St. Patrick away only.
Floriana vs Zabbar St. Patrick head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Floriana 4 · draws 1 · Zabbar St. Patrick 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | Zabbar St. Patrick | 0-3 | Floriana | Malta Premier League |
| 2026-01-28 | Floriana | 0-0 | Zabbar St. Patrick | FA Trophy |
| 2025-09-24 | Floriana | 3-1 | Zabbar St. Patrick | Malta Premier League |
| 2025-02-02 | Floriana | 1-0 | Zabbar St. Patrick | Premier League |
| 2024-08-28 | Zabbar St. Patrick | 0-3 | Floriana | Premier League |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Sliema Wanderers vs Marsaxlokk — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Valletta FC vs Hamrun Spartans 2026-10-25
- Balzan FC v Birkirkara — match page 2026-10-25
- Gzira United vs Birzebbuga — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Mosta v Hibernians — match page 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Floriana, previous: Birkirkara vs Floriana prediction
- Floriana, next: Floriana v Valletta FC analysis
- Zabbar St. Patrick, previous: Zabbar St. Patrick vs Sliema Wanderers: odds and pick
- Zabbar St. Patrick, next: Zabbar St. Patrick – Mosta, 2026-10-31