Valletta FC vs Hamrun Spartans preview
In the Malta Premier League fixture between Valletta FC and Hamrun Spartans, the 1X2 probabilities show Hamrun Spartans at 39% to win, compared to Valletta FC's 33%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.83 for Valletta FC and 1.19 for Hamrun Spartans.
Both teams to score stands at 59%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 58%. Valletta FC has been in strong form with 4 wins and a draw in their last 6 matches, while Hamrun Spartans have 4 wins and 2 draws in their recent games. A surprise result could occur if Valletta FC's attacking strength exceeds expectations or if Hamrun Spartans manage to contain them effectively.
Valletta FC vs Hamrun Spartans: model vs market
| Source | Valletta FC | Draw | Hamrun Spartans |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51% | 25% | 24% |
| Market | 40% | 29% | 31% |
| Published | 43% | 28% | 30% |
| Edge | +3% | -1% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 1.19.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Valletta FC below our published probability: +2.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.34, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Valletta FC vs Hamrun Spartans odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Valletta FC, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valletta FC | 3.35 | 2.28 | -1.07 |
| Draw | 3.15 | 3.20 | +0.05 |
| Hamrun Spartans | 2.05 | 2.90 | +0.85 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Valletta FC and Hamrun Spartans expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.01
- Attack rating (Valletta FC / Hamrun Spartans)
- 1.33 / 1.22
- Defence rating (Valletta FC / Hamrun Spartans)
- 0.83 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Valletta FC vs Hamrun Spartans score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Valletta FC goals. Columns: Hamrun Spartans goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Valletta FC vs Hamrun Spartans goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Valletta FC vs Hamrun Spartans
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Valletta FC | 43% | 2.33 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.62 | |
| Hamrun Spartans | 30% | 3.39 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.38 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.68 |
| No | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Valletta FC or draw) | 70% | 1.42 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Hamrun Spartans) | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Handicap -1 | Valletta FC win by 2+ | 29% | 3.39 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Valletta FC and Hamrun Spartans recent form
Valletta FC
5W 1D 0L
Hamrun Spartans
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Valletta FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Hamrun Spartans away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Valletta FC at home only, Hamrun Spartans away only.
Valletta FC vs Hamrun Spartans head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Valletta FC 2 · draws 3 · Hamrun Spartans 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | Valletta FC | 0-2 | Hamrun Spartans | Malta Premier League |
| 2026-05-02 | Valletta FC | 2-1 | Hamrun Spartans | Malta Premier League |
| 2026-03-04 | Valletta FC | 3-1 | Hamrun Spartans | FA Trophy |
| 2026-01-24 | Valletta FC | 0-0 | Hamrun Spartans | Malta Premier League |
| 2025-11-22 | Hamrun Spartans | 1-0 | Valletta FC | Malta Premier League |
| 2025-08-31 | Hamrun Spartans | 1-1 | Valletta FC | Malta Premier League |
| 2024-03-02 | Hamrun Spartans | 1-1 | Valletta FC | Premier League |
| 2023-10-28 | Valletta FC | 1-2 | Hamrun Spartans | Premier League |
| 2023-02-15 | Valletta FC | 1-2 | Hamrun Spartans | FA Trophy |
| 2023-02-11 | Hamrun Spartans | 1-0 | Valletta FC | Premier League |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Sliema Wanderers vs Marsaxlokk — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Balzan FC v Birkirkara — match page 2026-10-25
- Gzira United vs Birzebbuga — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Floriana vs Zabbar St. Patrick 2026-10-26
- Mosta v Hibernians — match page 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Valletta FC, previous: Mosta v Valletta FC analysis
- Hamrun Spartans, previous: Hamrun Spartans – Balzan FC, 2026-10-21