Mosta vs Hibernians preview
Mosta faces Hibernians with a 45% probability of winning compared to Hibernians' 27%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs in 9% of simulations. Mosta has an expected goals figure of 1.56, while Hibernians sits at 1.17.
Recent form shows Mosta with 1 win in their last 6 matches, while Hibernians has 2 wins in the same period. Both teams to score stands at 56%, indicating a fair chance for goals from both sides. However, if Mosta's recent struggles continue, they might not convert their expected goals into a win.
Mosta vs Hibernians: model vs market
| Source | Mosta | Draw | Hibernians |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 28% | 27% |
| Market | 28% | 26% | 46% |
| Published | 32% | 27% | 41% |
| Edge | +4% | 0% | -5% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.02, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -17.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Mosta vs Hibernians odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Hibernians, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-24.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mosta | 3.21 | 3.21 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.42 | 3.42 | +0.00 |
| Hibernians | 1.97 | 1.98 | +0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Mosta and Hibernians expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.72
- Attack rating (Mosta / Hibernians)
- 1.05 / 0.86
- Defence rating (Mosta / Hibernians)
- 1.15 / 1.07
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Mosta vs Hibernians score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Mosta goals. Columns: Hibernians goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Mosta vs Hibernians goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Mosta vs Hibernians
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mosta | 32% | 3.09 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.75 | |
| Hibernians | 41% | 2.44 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.80 |
| No | 44% | 2.25 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Mosta or draw) | 59% | 1.69 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Hibernians) | 68% | 1.48 | |
| Handicap -1 | Hibernians win by 2+ | 11% | 8.71 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Mosta and Hibernians recent form
Mosta
0W 4D 2L
Hibernians
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Mosta at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Hibernians away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Mosta at home only, Hibernians away only.
Mosta vs Hibernians head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Mosta 3 · draws 2 · Hibernians 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Hibernians | 2-0 | Mosta | Malta Premier League |
| 2026-01-31 | Hibernians | 1-0 | Mosta | Malta Premier League |
| 2026-01-11 | Hibernians | 0-2 | Mosta | Malta Premier League |
| 2025-09-17 | Mosta | 2-2 | Hibernians | Malta Premier League |
| 2025-02-23 | Hibernians | 2-0 | Mosta | Premier League |
| 2024-12-07 | Hibernians | 3-2 | Mosta | Premier League |
| 2024-10-19 | Mosta | 1-0 | Hibernians | Premier League |
| 2024-07-19 | Hibernians | 2-0 | Mosta | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2024-04-21 | Mosta | 3-1 | Hibernians | Premier League |
| 2023-12-17 | Hibernians | 0-0 | Mosta | Premier League |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Sliema Wanderers vs Marsaxlokk — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Valletta FC vs Hamrun Spartans 2026-10-25
- Balzan FC v Birkirkara — match page 2026-10-25
- Gzira United vs Birzebbuga — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Floriana vs Zabbar St. Patrick 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Mosta, previous: Mosta v Valletta FC analysis
- Mosta, next: Zabbar St. Patrick – Mosta, 2026-10-31
- Hibernians, previous: Hibernians v Gzira United analysis
- Hibernians, next: Balzan FC v Hibernians analysis