Milsami Orhei vs CSF Bălți preview
Milsami Orhei faces CSF Bălți with a strong 90% probability of winning according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 3-0, which aligns with an expected goals figure of 3.40 for Milsami Orhei and just 0.50 for CSF Bălți. With 75% for Over 2.5 goals, there is a good chance of a high-scoring match.
However, the recent form of CSF Bălți is concerning, as they have lost their last 6 matches. Milsami Orhei's mixed results, with 2 wins in their last 6, could lead to unexpected outcomes. The probability for both teams to score is only 38%, indicating that CSF Bălți may struggle to find the net.
Milsami Orhei vs CSF Bălți: model vs market
| Source | Milsami Orhei | Draw | CSF Bălți |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 90% | 8% | 2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 90% | 8% | 2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.40 vs 0.50.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Milsami Orhei and CSF Bălți expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.90
- Attack rating (Milsami Orhei / CSF Bălți)
- 0.92 / 0.43
- Defence rating (Milsami Orhei / CSF Bălți)
- 0.86 / 2.31
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Milsami Orhei vs CSF Bălți score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Milsami Orhei goals. Columns: CSF Bălți goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Milsami Orhei vs CSF Bălți goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 38%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Milsami Orhei vs CSF Bălți
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Milsami Orhei | 90% | 1.11 |
| Draw | 8% | 12.65 | |
| CSF Bălți | 2% | 43.52 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 3.95 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38% | 2.61 |
| No | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Milsami Orhei or draw) | 98% | 1.02 |
| 12 (either side) | 92% | 1.09 | |
| X2 (draw or CSF Bălți) | 10% | 9.80 | |
| Handicap -1 | Milsami Orhei win by 2+ | 76% | 1.32 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Milsami Orhei and CSF Bălți recent form
Milsami Orhei
2W 2D 2L
CSF Bălți
0W 0D 6L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Milsami Orhei at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-4-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.11
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 9
- They have won 5 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 17 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 17 matches.
CSF Bălți away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-7
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.25
- Goals against / match
- 3.62
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 8
- They have won 1 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 0.9 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 17 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Milsami Orhei at home only, CSF Bălți away only.
Milsami Orhei vs CSF Bălți head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Milsami Orhei 5 · draws 3 · CSF Bălți 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | CSF Bălți | 1-3 | Milsami Orhei | Moldova Super Liga |
| 2026-07-19 | Milsami Orhei | 2-1 | CSF Bălți | Moldova Super Liga |
| 2026-04-26 | CSF Bălți | 1-0 | Milsami Orhei | Moldova Super Liga |
| 2026-03-15 | Milsami Orhei | 0-0 | CSF Bălți | Moldova Super Liga |
| 2025-11-30 | CSF Bălți | 2-1 | Milsami Orhei | Moldova Super Liga |
| 2025-09-28 | Milsami Orhei | 2-1 | CSF Bălți | Moldova Super Liga |
| 2025-08-03 | CSF Bălți | 3-3 | Milsami Orhei | Moldova Super Liga |
| 2025-05-03 | Milsami Orhei | 5-0 | CSF Bălți | Super Liga |
| 2025-03-29 | CSF Bălți | 0-2 | Milsami Orhei | Super Liga |
| 2024-10-19 | CSF Bălți | 0-0 | Milsami Orhei | Super Liga |
Other Matchday 18 fixtures
- Zimbru vs Sireți — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Petrocub vs Sheriff Tiraspol 2026-11-07
- Dacia-Buiucani vs Politehnica UTM — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Milsami Orhei, previous: Milsami Orhei – Dacia-Buiucani, 2026-11-01
- CSF Bălți, previous: CSF Bălți v Petrocub analysis