Zimbru vs Sireți: model vs market
| Source | Zimbru | Draw | Sireți |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64% | 24% | 12% |
| Market | 73% | 18% | 9% |
| Published | 71% | 19% | 10% |
| Edge | -2% | +2% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 0.70.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Zimbru vs Sireți odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Zimbru, 2 snapshots since 2026-11-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zimbru | 1.16 | 1.23 | +0.07 |
| Draw | 5.83 | 5.15 | -0.67 |
| Sireți | 14.00 | 9.90 | -4.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Zimbru and Sireți expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.56
- Attack rating (Zimbru / Sireți)
- 1.22 / 0.77
- Defence rating (Zimbru / Sireți)
- 0.67 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Zimbru vs Sireți score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Zimbru goals. Columns: Sireți goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Zimbru vs Sireți goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Zimbru vs Sireți
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Zimbru | 71% | 1.41 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.25 | |
| Sireți | 10% | 10.08 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.12 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.30 |
| No | 57% | 1.77 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Zimbru or draw) | 90% | 1.11 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or Sireți) | 29% | 3.45 | |
| Handicap -1 | Zimbru win by 2+ | 39% | 2.56 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Zimbru and Sireți recent form
Zimbru
2W 3D 1L
Sireți
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Zimbru at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-1-2
- Win rate
- 62%
- Goals for / match
- 2.12
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 8
- They have won 9 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 17 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 5 penalties (40%).
Sireți away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-5
- Win rate
- 11%
- Goals for / match
- 0.89
- Goals against / match
- 1.78
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 9
- They have won 2 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 17 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 17 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Zimbru at home only, Sireți away only.
Zimbru vs Sireți head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Zimbru 1 · draws 1 · Sireți 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Sireți | 0-2 | Zimbru | Moldova Super Liga |
| 2026-07-18 | Zimbru | 1-1 | Sireți | Moldova Super Liga |
Other Matchday 18 fixtures
- Petrocub vs Sheriff Tiraspol 2026-11-07
- Milsami Orhei v CSF Bălți — match page 2026-11-08
- Dacia-Buiucani vs Politehnica UTM — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Zimbru, previous: Sheriff Tiraspol vs Zimbru: odds and pick
- Sireți, previous: Sireți vs Politehnica UTM prediction