Petrocub vs Sheriff Tiraspol preview
In the Moldova Super Liga fixture between Petrocub and Sheriff Tiraspol, the 1X2 probabilities show Sheriff Tiraspol at 38% to win, while Petrocub is at 32%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an 8% chance. The model suggests a 55% likelihood of Over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance for both teams to score.
Petrocub's expected goals stand at 1.52, slightly higher than Sheriff Tiraspol's 1.35. Recent form indicates Petrocub has won 4 of their last 6 matches, while Sheriff Tiraspol has won 6 in a row. The confidence grade is C, indicating that unexpected results could arise, particularly given the close nature of their head-to-head record, with Sheriff Tiraspol winning 5 of the last 10 encounters.
Petrocub vs Sheriff Tiraspol: model vs market
| Source | Petrocub | Draw | Sheriff Tiraspol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| Market | 30% | 30% | 40% |
| Published | 32% | 29% | 38% |
| Edge | +3% | -1% | -2% |
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.31, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Petrocub vs Sheriff Tiraspol odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sheriff Tiraspol, 2 snapshots since 2026-11-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petrocub | 3.85 | 3.04 | -0.81 |
| Draw | 3.48 | 2.99 | -0.48 |
| Sheriff Tiraspol | 1.79 | 2.23 | +0.44 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Petrocub and Sheriff Tiraspol expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.87
- Attack rating (Petrocub / Sheriff Tiraspol)
- 1.25 / 1.47
- Defence rating (Petrocub / Sheriff Tiraspol)
- 0.68 / 0.76
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Petrocub vs Sheriff Tiraspol score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Petrocub goals. Columns: Sheriff Tiraspol goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Petrocub vs Sheriff Tiraspol goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Petrocub vs Sheriff Tiraspol
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Petrocub | 32% | 3.10 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.41 | |
| Sheriff Tiraspol | 38% | 2.60 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.69 |
| No | 41% | 2.44 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Petrocub or draw) | 62% | 1.62 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Sheriff Tiraspol) | 68% | 1.48 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sheriff Tiraspol win by 2+ | 15% | 6.66 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Petrocub and Sheriff Tiraspol recent form
Petrocub
4W 2D 0L
Sheriff Tiraspol
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Petrocub at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-2-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.22
- Goals against / match
- 0.89
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 9
- They have won 9 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 17 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 17 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sheriff Tiraspol away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-2-1
- Win rate
- 62%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 8
- They have won 11 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 17 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Petrocub at home only, Sheriff Tiraspol away only.
Petrocub vs Sheriff Tiraspol head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Petrocub 3 · draws 2 · Sheriff Tiraspol 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 2-2 | Petrocub | Moldova Super Liga |
| 2026-07-19 | Petrocub | 2-3 | Sheriff Tiraspol | Moldova Super Liga |
| 2026-05-13 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 2-0 | Petrocub | Cupa |
| 2026-05-06 | Petrocub | 1-0 | Sheriff Tiraspol | Cupa |
| 2026-04-26 | Petrocub | 1-0 | Sheriff Tiraspol | Moldova Super Liga |
| 2026-03-14 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 1-0 | Petrocub | Moldova Super Liga |
| 2025-11-08 | Petrocub | 4-2 | Sheriff Tiraspol | Moldova Super Liga |
| 2025-09-14 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 2-0 | Petrocub | Moldova Super Liga |
| 2025-07-20 | Petrocub | 0-0 | Sheriff Tiraspol | Moldova Super Liga |
| 2025-05-04 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 3-1 | Petrocub | Super Liga |
Other Matchday 18 fixtures
- Zimbru vs Sireți — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Milsami Orhei v CSF Bălți — match page 2026-11-08
- Dacia-Buiucani vs Politehnica UTM — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Petrocub, previous: CSF Bălți v Petrocub analysis
- Sheriff Tiraspol, previous: Sheriff Tiraspol vs Zimbru: odds and pick