Updated

Botola Pro · Matchday 7

CR Khemis Zemamra vs Widad Témara

· Stade Terrain Ahmed Chokri, Zemamra

Alin prediction Widad Témara to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 0 – 1

15% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
CR Khemis ZemamraDrawWidad Témara
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 0.72.
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.

CR Khemis Zemamra vs Widad Témara preview

In the Botola Pro fixture between CR Khemis Zemamra and Widad Témara, the 1X2 probabilities show Widad Témara at 52%, compared to CR Khemis Zemamra's 20%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 13% chance. Widad Témara's expected goals stand at 1.56, while CR Khemis Zemamra's is 0.87.

While Widad Témara has a stronger recent form with 2 wins in their last 5 matches, CR Khemis Zemamra has struggled, recording 4 losses in the same period. This could impact the match outcome, as both teams to score has a probability of 47% and Over 2.5 goals is at 44%. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, indicating some uncertainty.

CR Khemis Zemamra vs Widad Témara: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCR Khemis ZemamraDrawWidad Témara
Model17%29%54%
Market———
Published17%29%54%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 0.72.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

CR Khemis Zemamra and Widad Témara expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.72CR Khemis Zemamra
1.48Widad Témara
Total expected goals
2.20
Attack rating (CR Khemis Zemamra / Widad Témara)
0.85 / 1.04
Defence rating (CR Khemis Zemamra / Widad Témara)
1.35 / 0.75

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

CR Khemis Zemamra vs Widad Témara score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.3% 15.2% 12.1% 6.0% 3.0% 1 6.8% 13.0% 8.7% 4.3% 2.2% 2 2.9% 4.3% 3.2% 1.6% 0.8% 3 0.7% 1.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 4+ 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: CR Khemis Zemamra goals. Columns: Widad Témara goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

CR Khemis Zemamra vs Widad Témara goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%
Over 1.5 66%
Over 2.5 38%
Over 3.5 18%
Both teams to score
41%
No goals (0–0)
12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for CR Khemis Zemamra vs Widad Témara

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2CR Khemis Zemamra17%5.85
Draw29%3.47
Widad Témara54%1.85
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.538%2.65
Under 2.562%1.60
Both teams to scoreYes41%2.45
No59%1.69
Double chance1X (CR Khemis Zemamra or draw)46%2.18
12 (either side)71%1.41
X2 (draw or Widad Témara)83%1.21
Handicap -1Widad Témara win by 2+28%3.52
Push (exactly one goal)26%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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CR Khemis Zemamra and Widad Témara recent form

CR Khemis Zemamra 0W 1D 5L
Widad Témara 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

CR Khemis Zemamra at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
3.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2
  • They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.

Widad Témara away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-1
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: CR Khemis Zemamra at home only, Widad Témara away only.

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Widad Témara to win Predicted score 0 – 1 C Bet on Widad Témara