Difaa EL Jadida vs Moghreb Tetouan Prediction & Betting Tips 17/10/2026

Difaa EL Jadida vs Moghreb Tetouan preview

In the Botola Pro fixture between Difaa EL Jadida and Moghreb Tetouan, the 1X2 probabilities show Difaa EL Jadida at 38%, while Moghreb Tetouan is at 37%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a probability of 8%. Both teams to score stands at 64%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 61%, indicating a potential for a high-scoring match.

Difaa EL Jadida's recent form includes 1 win in their last 6 matches, while Moghreb Tetouan has 1 win in their last 6 as well. The expected goals are close, with Difaa EL Jadida at 1.59 and Moghreb Tetouan at 1.57, suggesting a competitive encounter. A draw could change the dynamics, as both teams have struggled recently.

Difaa EL Jadida vs Moghreb Tetouan: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Difaa EL Jadida	Draw	Moghreb Tetouan
Model	38%	26%	37%
Market	—	—	—
Published	38%	26%	37%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Difaa EL Jadida and Moghreb Tetouan expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.59Difaa EL Jadida

1.57Moghreb Tetouan

Total expected goals: 3.16
Attack rating (Difaa EL Jadida / Moghreb Tetouan): 1.39 / 0.88
Defence rating (Difaa EL Jadida / Moghreb Tetouan): 1.67 / 1.01

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Difaa EL Jadida vs Moghreb Tetouan score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.3% 5.6% 5.2% 2.7% 1.5% 1 5.7% 11.6% 8.3% 4.3% 2.4% 2 5.4% 8.4% 6.6% 3.5% 1.9% 3 2.9% 4.5% 3.5% 1.8% 1.0% 4+ 1.6% 2.5% 2.0% 1.0% 0.6%

Rows: Difaa EL Jadida goals. Columns: Moghreb Tetouan goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Difaa EL Jadida vs Moghreb Tetouan goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 83%

Over 2.5 61%

Over 3.5 39%

Both teams to score: 64%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Difaa EL Jadida vs Moghreb Tetouan

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Difaa EL Jadida	38%	2.65
	Draw	26%	3.89
	Moghreb Tetouan	37%	2.73
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	61%	1.63
	Under 2.5	39%	2.58
Both teams to score	Yes	64%	1.56
	No	36%	2.79
Double chance	1X (Difaa EL Jadida or draw)	63%	1.58
	12 (either side)	74%	1.35
	X2 (draw or Moghreb Tetouan)	62%	1.60
Handicap -1	Difaa EL Jadida win by 2+	19%	5.21
	Push (exactly one goal)	18%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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