Ittihad Tanger vs Maghreb Fès preview
Ittihad Tanger faces Maghreb Fès with a 24% chance of winning compared to 43% for Maghreb Fès, making them the favorites. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which occurs 15% of the time according to our model. Ittihad Tanger's expected goals are 0.82, while Maghreb Fès has higher expectations at 1.18.
Both teams to score stands at 40%, but this could be impacted by Ittihad Tanger's recent form, which shows 2 wins in their last 6 matches. Maghreb Fès, on the other hand, is in better shape with 5 wins in their last 6 games. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Ittihad Tanger vs Maghreb Fès: model vs market
| Source | Ittihad Tanger | Draw | Maghreb Fès |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24% | 33% | 43% |
| Market | 23% | 34% | 43% |
| Published | 24% | 33% | 43% |
| Edge | +1% | -1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.18 vs 0.82.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.24, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Ittihad Tanger and Maghreb Fès expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.00
- Attack rating (Ittihad Tanger / Maghreb Fès)
- 1.10 / 1.15
- Defence rating (Ittihad Tanger / Maghreb Fès)
- 0.96 / 0.66
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ittihad Tanger vs Maghreb Fès score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ittihad Tanger goals. Columns: Maghreb Fès goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ittihad Tanger vs Maghreb Fès goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 40%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ittihad Tanger vs Maghreb Fès
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ittihad Tanger | 24% | 4.25 |
| Draw | 33% | 3.00 | |
| Maghreb Fès | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32% | 3.08 |
| Under 2.5 | 68% | 1.48 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40% | 2.49 |
| No | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ittihad Tanger or draw) | 57% | 1.76 |
| 12 (either side) | 67% | 1.50 | |
| X2 (draw or Maghreb Fès) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| Handicap -1 | Maghreb Fès win by 2+ | 19% | 5.17 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Ittihad Tanger and Maghreb Fès recent form
Ittihad Tanger
2W 2D 2L
Maghreb Fès
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ittihad Tanger at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Maghreb Fès away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Ittihad Tanger at home only, Maghreb Fès away only.
Ittihad Tanger vs Maghreb Fès head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Ittihad Tanger 3 · draws 5 · Maghreb Fès 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | Maghreb Fès | 0-1 | Ittihad Tanger | Botola Pro |
| 2025-10-25 | Ittihad Tanger | 1-1 | Maghreb Fès | Botola Pro |
| 2025-03-08 | Maghreb Fès | 1-1 | Ittihad Tanger | Botola Pro |
| 2024-11-03 | Ittihad Tanger | 1-1 | Maghreb Fès | Botola Pro |
| 2024-03-27 | Maghreb Fès | 2-2 | Ittihad Tanger | Cup |
| 2024-03-09 | Maghreb Fès | 2-1 | Ittihad Tanger | Botola Pro |
| 2023-11-05 | Ittihad Tanger | 2-2 | Maghreb Fès | Botola Pro |
| 2023-04-07 | Maghreb Fès | 0-1 | Ittihad Tanger | Botola Pro |
| 2023-02-10 | Maghreb Fès | 0-2 | Ittihad Tanger | Cup |
| 2022-10-28 | Ittihad Tanger | 2-3 | Maghreb Fès | Botola Pro |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
- Hassania Agadir vs FAR Rabat — team news & stats 2026-10-12
- Renaissance Berkane v CR Khemis Zemamra — match page 2026-10-13
- FUS Rabat vs Raja Casablanca — team news & stats 2026-10-13
- CODM Meknès v UTS Rabat — match page 2026-10-17
- Difaa EL Jadida vs Moghreb Tetouan — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Widad Témara vs Kawkab Marrakech 2026-10-18
- Wydad AC v Amal Tiznit — match page 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Ittihad Tanger, previous: Kawkab Marrakech – Ittihad Tanger, 2026-10-10
- Maghreb Fès, previous: Maghreb Fès vs Raja Casablanca: odds and pick
- Maghreb Fès, next: Maghreb Fès – ASEC Mimosas, 2026-10-18