GVVV Veenendaal vs Noordwijk Prediction & Betting Tips 29/10/2026

GVVV Veenendaal vs Noordwijk preview

In the KNVB Beker match between GVVV Veenendaal and Noordwijk, the 1X2 probabilities show GVVV Veenendaal at 39%, Noordwijk at 34%, and a draw at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance, indicating a competitive fixture.

Both teams to score stands at 59%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 55%. GVVV Veenendaal has expected goals of 1.49 compared to Noordwijk's 1.39. However, GVVV's recent form shows a mix of wins and losses, which could impact their performance.

GVVV Veenendaal vs Noordwijk: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	GVVV Veenendaal	Draw	Noordwijk
Model	39%	27%	34%
Market	—	—	—
Published	39%	27%	34%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

GVVV Veenendaal and Noordwijk expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.49GVVV Veenendaal

1.39Noordwijk

Total expected goals: 2.88
Attack rating (GVVV Veenendaal / Noordwijk): 1.07 / 0.82
Defence rating (GVVV Veenendaal / Noordwijk): 0.84 / 0.71

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

GVVV Veenendaal vs Noordwijk score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.8% 6.6% 5.4% 2.5% 1.2% 1 7.2% 12.8% 8.1% 3.7% 1.7% 2 6.3% 8.7% 6.0% 2.8% 1.3% 3 3.1% 4.3% 3.0% 1.4% 0.6% 4+ 1.6% 2.2% 1.5% 0.7% 0.3%

Rows: GVVV Veenendaal goals. Columns: Noordwijk goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

GVVV Veenendaal vs Noordwijk goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 79%

Over 2.5 55%

Over 3.5 33%

Both teams to score: 59%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for GVVV Veenendaal vs Noordwijk

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	GVVV Veenendaal	39%	2.58
	Draw	27%	3.68
	Noordwijk	34%	2.94
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	55%	1.82
	Under 2.5	45%	2.22
Both teams to score	Yes	59%	1.69
	No	41%	2.45
Double chance	1X (GVVV Veenendaal or draw)	66%	1.52
	12 (either side)	73%	1.37
	X2 (draw or Noordwijk)	61%	1.63
Handicap -1	GVVV Veenendaal win by 2+	19%	5.18
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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