Purmersteijn vs Gemert Prediction & Betting Tips 29/10/2026

Purmersteijn vs Gemert preview

In the KNVB Beker fixture, Purmersteijn faces Gemert with a 26% chance of Purmersteijn winning, a 26% chance of a draw, and a 47% chance for Gemert. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% probability.

Both teams have shown the potential for goals, with a 56% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance for both teams to score. Purmersteijn has an expected goals figure of 1.23, while Gemert's is higher at 1.70. However, Purmersteijn's recent form includes two wins, while Gemert has three wins and one loss in their last five matches, which could influence the outcome.

Purmersteijn vs Gemert: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Purmersteijn	Draw	Gemert
Model	26%	26%	47%
Market	—	—	—
Published	26%	26%	47%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 1.23.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 5 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Purmersteijn and Gemert expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.23Purmersteijn

1.70Gemert

Total expected goals: 2.93
Attack rating (Purmersteijn / Gemert): 1.06 / 0.92
Defence rating (Purmersteijn / Gemert): 0.92 / 0.59

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Purmersteijn vs Gemert score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.4% 8.0% 7.7% 4.4% 2.7% 1 5.4% 12.3% 9.5% 5.4% 3.4% 2 4.0% 6.9% 5.8% 3.3% 2.1% 3 1.6% 2.8% 2.4% 1.4% 0.9% 4+ 0.7% 1.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3%

Rows: Purmersteijn goals. Columns: Gemert goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Purmersteijn vs Gemert goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%

Over 1.5 80%

Over 2.5 56%

Over 3.5 34%

Both teams to score: 59%
No goals (0–0): 6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Purmersteijn vs Gemert

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Purmersteijn	26%	3.77
	Draw	26%	3.83
	Gemert	47%	2.11
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	56%	1.78
	Under 2.5	44%	2.28
Both teams to score	Yes	59%	1.69
	No	41%	2.44
Double chance	1X (Purmersteijn or draw)	53%	1.90
	12 (either side)	74%	1.35
	X2 (draw or Gemert)	74%	1.36
Handicap -1	Gemert win by 2+	26%	3.85
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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