Hoek vs Sparta Nijkerk preview
In the KNVB Beker match between Hoek and Sparta Nijkerk, the 1X2 probabilities show Hoek at 29%, a draw at 21%, and Sparta Nijkerk at 49%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an 8% chance. The model indicates a strong likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 77% and both teams to score at 75%.
Hoek's expected goals are 1.77, while Sparta Nijkerk's are 2.29. Recent form also favors Sparta Nijkerk, who have won 4 of their last 5 matches, compared to Hoek's 3 wins in the same period. A surprise could come if Hoek's defense performs better than expected or if they capitalize on scoring opportunities.
Hoek vs Sparta Nijkerk: model vs market
| Source | Hoek | Draw | Sparta Nijkerk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 21% | 49% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 29% | 21% | 49% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.29 vs 1.77.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 5 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Hoek and Sparta Nijkerk expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.06
- Attack rating (Hoek / Sparta Nijkerk)
- 1.13 / 1.01
- Defence rating (Hoek / Sparta Nijkerk)
- 1.12 / 0.79
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Hoek vs Sparta Nijkerk score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Hoek goals. Columns: Sparta Nijkerk goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Hoek vs Sparta Nijkerk goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 75%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Hoek vs Sparta Nijkerk
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hoek | 29% | 3.41 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.69 | |
| Sparta Nijkerk | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77% | 1.30 |
| Under 2.5 | 23% | 4.36 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75% | 1.33 |
| No | 25% | 4.04 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Hoek or draw) | 51% | 1.97 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Sparta Nijkerk) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sparta Nijkerk win by 2+ | 30% | 3.29 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Hoek and Sparta Nijkerk recent form
Hoek
3W 0D 1L
Sparta Nijkerk
4W 0D 1L
Last 4 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
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