Kozakken Boys vs Utrecht preview
Kozakken Boys face Utrecht with a 64% probability of winning, while Utrecht sits at 19%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with an expected goals figure of 3.00 for Kozakken Boys and 1.66 for Utrecht.
The high chance of Over 2.5 goals at 84% and both teams to score at 77% suggests a potentially exciting match. However, the confidence grade is only C, indicating that unexpected outcomes could arise, particularly given Utrecht's mixed recent form of W-W-L-W-D-L.
Kozakken Boys vs Utrecht: model vs market
| Source | Kozakken Boys | Draw | Utrecht |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64% | 17% | 19% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 64% | 17% | 19% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.00 vs 1.66.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Kozakken Boys and Utrecht expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.66
- Attack rating (Kozakken Boys / Utrecht)
- 1.32 / 0.93
- Defence rating (Kozakken Boys / Utrecht)
- 0.88 / 1.15
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kozakken Boys vs Utrecht score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kozakken Boys goals. Columns: Utrecht goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kozakken Boys vs Utrecht goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 77%
- No goals (0–0)
- 1%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kozakken Boys vs Utrecht
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kozakken Boys | 64% | 1.55 |
| Draw | 17% | 5.89 | |
| Utrecht | 19% | 5.37 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 84% | 1.19 |
| Under 2.5 | 16% | 6.38 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77% | 1.29 |
| No | 23% | 4.42 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kozakken Boys or draw) | 81% | 1.23 |
| 12 (either side) | 83% | 1.20 | |
| X2 (draw or Utrecht) | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kozakken Boys win by 2+ | 46% | 2.18 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Kozakken Boys and Utrecht recent form
Kozakken Boys
2W 0D 1L
Utrecht
3W 1D 2L
Last 3 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
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Before and after this match
- Utrecht, previous: Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle prediction