Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle preview
Utrecht faces PEC Zwolle with a 61% chance of winning, while Zwolle sits at 18%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% probability. Utrecht's expected goals are 2.89 compared to Zwolle's 1.29, indicating a strong offensive performance from the home side.
While Utrecht has a solid recent form with a record of W-L-W-D-L-D, PEC Zwolle has struggled, recording L-L-L-D-L-W. Despite Utrecht's advantage in head-to-head matches, where they have 1 win and 1 draw against Zwolle's 0 wins, the confidence grade is C. This suggests potential unpredictability in the match outcome, despite the statistical edge for Utrecht.
Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle: model vs market
| Source | Utrecht | Draw | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61% | 19% | 21% |
| Market | 57% | 22% | 21% |
| Published | 58% | 21% | 21% |
| Edge | +3% | -3% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.68 vs 1.57.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Utrecht below the model: +3.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.68, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Utrecht, 17 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utrecht | 1.62 | 1.62 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.10 | 4.21 | +0.12 |
| PEC Zwolle | 4.75 | 4.53 | -0.22 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Utrecht and PEC Zwolle expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.25
- Attack rating (Utrecht / PEC Zwolle)
- 1.07 / 0.78
- Defence rating (Utrecht / PEC Zwolle)
- 1.34 / 1.39
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Utrecht goals. Columns: PEC Zwolle goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 74%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Utrecht | 58% | 1.72 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.70 | |
| PEC Zwolle | 21% | 4.86 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80% | 1.26 |
| Under 2.5 | 20% | 4.89 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74% | 1.35 |
| No | 26% | 3.90 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Utrecht or draw) | 79% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or PEC Zwolle) | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Handicap -1 | Utrecht win by 2+ | 41% | 2.43 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Utrecht and PEC Zwolle recent form
Utrecht
3W 1D 2L
PEC Zwolle
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Utrecht at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
PEC Zwolle away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 58% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Utrecht at home only, PEC Zwolle away only.
Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Utrecht 1 · draws 1 · PEC Zwolle 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | Utrecht | 1-1 | PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie |
| 2025-08-31 | PEC Zwolle | 0-2 | Utrecht | Eredivisie |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- GO Ahead Eagles vs Telstar — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Willem II v Cambuur — match page 2026-10-24
- ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior 2026-10-25
- PSV Eindhoven v Feyenoord — match page 2026-10-25
- NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax 2026-10-25
- AZ Alkmaar v Twente — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Utrecht, previous: Twente vs Utrecht prediction
- Utrecht, next: Kozakken Boys v Utrecht analysis
- PEC Zwolle, previous: PEC Zwolle vs GO Ahead Eagles: odds and pick
- PEC Zwolle, next: PEC Zwolle vs FC OSS prediction