Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior preview
Fortuna Sittard faces Excelsior with a 38% chance of winning compared to Excelsior's 37%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% probability. Both teams to score is at 72%, which suggests an open match.
Fortuna Sittard's expected goals stand at 2.04, while Excelsior's is 1.71. However, the recent form shows Fortuna Sittard with mixed results (D-W-L-W-W-L) and Excelsior struggling (L-L-D-L-D-W). This inconsistency could impact the outcome, making it difficult to predict the final result confidently.
Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior: model vs market
| Source | Fortuna Sittard | Draw | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 22% | 31% |
| Market | 38% | 25% | 36% |
| Published | 40% | 25% | 35% |
| Edge | +8% | -3% | -5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 1.73.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Fortuna Sittard below the model: +7.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.70, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Fortuna Sittard, 16 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard | 2.62 | 2.45 | -0.17 |
| Draw | 3.73 | 3.69 | -0.03 |
| Excelsior | 2.38 | 2.60 | +0.22 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Fortuna Sittard and Excelsior expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.84
- Attack rating (Fortuna Sittard / Excelsior)
- 0.96 / 1.05
- Defence rating (Fortuna Sittard / Excelsior)
- 1.09 / 1.22
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Fortuna Sittard goals. Columns: Excelsior goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 73%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fortuna Sittard | 40% | 2.48 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.05 | |
| Excelsior | 35% | 2.86 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.36 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.81 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73% | 1.37 |
| No | 27% | 3.71 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Fortuna Sittard or draw) | 65% | 1.54 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Excelsior) | 60% | 1.68 | |
| Handicap -1 | Fortuna Sittard win by 2+ | 27% | 3.66 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Fortuna Sittard and Excelsior recent form
Fortuna Sittard
3W 2D 1L
Excelsior
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Fortuna Sittard at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Excelsior away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Fortuna Sittard at home only, Excelsior away only.
Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Fortuna Sittard 1 · draws 0 · Excelsior 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-20 | Fortuna Sittard | 2-1 | Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| 2025-10-19 | Excelsior | 1-0 | Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
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- PSV Eindhoven v Feyenoord — match page 2026-10-25
- NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen — team news & stats 2026-10-25
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Before and after this match
- Fortuna Sittard, previous: NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard prediction
- Fortuna Sittard, next: Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard: odds and pick
- Excelsior, previous: Heerenveen v Excelsior analysis
- Excelsior, next: MVV vs Excelsior: odds and pick