NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen preview
In the Eredivisie fixture between NEC Nijmegen and Groningen, the 1X2 probabilities show NEC Nijmegen at 40%, draw at 24%, and Groningen at 36%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 6% chance. The model indicates a strong possibility of Over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams to score at 66%.
NEC Nijmegen's recent form is D-D-D-L-L-D, while Groningen has W-W-D-D-L-L. Expected goals are 1.34 for NEC Nijmegen and 2.16 for Groningen. The head-to-head record is even in the last 2 matches, with each team winning once. A lower scoring game or a draw could make predictions less accurate. The confidence grade for this match is C.
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen: model vs market
| Source | NEC Nijmegen | Draw | Groningen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30% | 22% | 48% |
| Market | 42% | 25% | 33% |
| Published | 39% | 24% | 37% |
| Edge | -12% | -2% | +15% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.33, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen odds movement
Median bookmaker price on NEC Nijmegen, 16 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| NEC Nijmegen | 2.05 | 2.23 | +0.18 |
| Draw | 3.80 | 3.81 | +0.01 |
| Groningen | 3.11 | 2.80 | -0.31 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
NEC Nijmegen and Groningen expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.88
- Attack rating (NEC Nijmegen / Groningen)
- 0.80 / 1.25
- Defence rating (NEC Nijmegen / Groningen)
- 1.15 / 1.18
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: NEC Nijmegen goals. Columns: Groningen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 73%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NEC Nijmegen | 39% | 2.56 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.18 | |
| Groningen | 37% | 2.70 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.90 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73% | 1.36 |
| No | 27% | 3.75 | |
| Double chance | 1X (NEC Nijmegen or draw) | 63% | 1.59 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Groningen) | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Handicap -1 | NEC Nijmegen win by 2+ | 15% | 6.62 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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NEC Nijmegen and Groningen recent form
NEC Nijmegen
0W 4D 2L
Groningen
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
NEC Nijmegen at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Groningen away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
League matches this season before kick-off: NEC Nijmegen at home only, Groningen away only.
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: NEC Nijmegen 1 · draws 0 · Groningen 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Groningen | 2-1 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| 2025-11-09 | NEC Nijmegen | 2-0 | Groningen | Eredivisie |
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Before and after this match
- NEC Nijmegen, previous: Dinamo Zagreb v NEC Nijmegen analysis
- NEC Nijmegen, next: NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia prediction
- Groningen, previous: Groningen v Ajax analysis
- Groningen, next: Groningen – Emmen, 2026-10-29