Willem II vs Cambuur preview
Willem II faces Cambuur with a 36% chance of winning compared to Cambuur's 38%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with both teams expected to score at a rate of 67%. Over 2.5 goals is predicted at 66%, suggesting a high-scoring match.
Willem II's recent form shows 5 losses and 1 draw, while Cambuur has 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last 6 matches. This disparity in form could impact the outcome. The confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty in the predictions.
Willem II vs Cambuur: model vs market
| Source | Willem II | Draw | Cambuur |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 24% | 44% |
| Market | 38% | 26% | 36% |
| Published | 36% | 25% | 38% |
| Edge | -7% | -1% | +8% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 1.54.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Cambuur below the model: +8.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.67, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Willem II vs Cambuur odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cambuur, 16 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II | 2.39 | 2.48 | +0.09 |
| Draw | 3.61 | 3.66 | +0.05 |
| Cambuur | 2.63 | 2.59 | -0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Willem II and Cambuur expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.38
- Attack rating (Willem II / Cambuur)
- 0.75 / 0.93
- Defence rating (Willem II / Cambuur)
- 1.31 / 1.14
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Willem II vs Cambuur score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Willem II goals. Columns: Cambuur goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Willem II vs Cambuur goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Willem II vs Cambuur
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Willem II | 36% | 2.75 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.94 | |
| Cambuur | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.92 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.49 |
| No | 33% | 3.04 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Willem II or draw) | 62% | 1.62 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Cambuur) | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cambuur win by 2+ | 25% | 4.04 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Willem II and Cambuur recent form
Willem II
0W 1D 5L
Cambuur
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Willem II at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
Cambuur away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Willem II at home only, Cambuur away only.
Willem II vs Cambuur head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Willem II 0 · draws 1 · Cambuur 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-12 | Willem II | 0-1 | Cambuur | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-09-06 | Cambuur | 2-2 | Willem II | Eerste Divisie |
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Before and after this match
- Willem II, previous: Sparta Rotterdam v Willem II analysis
- Willem II, next: Helmond Sport v Willem II analysis
- Cambuur, previous: Cambuur – AZ Alkmaar, 2026-10-18
- Cambuur, next: Kloetinge vs Cambuur: odds and pick