Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax preview
In the Eredivisie fixture between Sparta Rotterdam and Ajax, the 1X2 probabilities show Ajax at 65%, while Sparta Rotterdam sits at 17%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-3, with an expected goals tally of 1.70 for Sparta and 3.26 for Ajax. The high probability of Over 2.5 goals at 87% and both teams to score at 79% suggests a dynamic match.
However, the recent form could impact the outcome. Sparta Rotterdam has recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 3 losses in their last 6 matches, while Ajax has 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax: model vs market
| Source | Sparta Rotterdam | Draw | Ajax |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 15% | 14% | 70% |
| Market | 17% | 19% | 63% |
| Published | 17% | 18% | 65% |
| Edge | -2% | -5% | +7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.51 vs 1.75.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Ajax below the model: +7.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.54, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Ajax, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam | 6.50 | 5.30 | -1.20 |
| Draw | 5.08 | 4.78 | -0.30 |
| Ajax | 1.39 | 1.47 | +0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sparta Rotterdam and Ajax expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 5.26
- Attack rating (Sparta Rotterdam / Ajax)
- 0.99 / 1.62
- Defence rating (Sparta Rotterdam / Ajax)
- 1.43 / 0.98
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sparta Rotterdam goals. Columns: Ajax goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 81%
- No goals (0–0)
- 1%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sparta Rotterdam | 17% | 5.90 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.51 | |
| Ajax | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 90% | 1.12 |
| Under 2.5 | 10% | 9.57 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 81% | 1.24 |
| No | 19% | 5.13 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sparta Rotterdam or draw) | 35% | 2.85 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| X2 (draw or Ajax) | 83% | 1.20 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ajax win by 2+ | 53% | 1.87 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sparta Rotterdam and Ajax recent form
Sparta Rotterdam
1W 2D 3L
Ajax
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sparta Rotterdam at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 2.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
Ajax away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- They average 3.7 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sparta Rotterdam at home only, Ajax away only.
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Sparta Rotterdam 0 · draws 1 · Ajax 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Ajax | 4-0 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie |
| 2025-10-04 | Sparta Rotterdam | 3-3 | Ajax | Eredivisie |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- GO Ahead Eagles vs Telstar — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle 2026-10-24
- Willem II v Cambuur — match page 2026-10-24
- ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior 2026-10-25
- PSV Eindhoven v Feyenoord — match page 2026-10-25
- NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- AZ Alkmaar v Twente — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Sparta Rotterdam, previous: Sparta Rotterdam v Willem II analysis
- Sparta Rotterdam, next: Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard: odds and pick
- Ajax, previous: Ajax v Atalanta analysis
- Ajax, next: FC Midtjylland v Ajax analysis