ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen preview
In the Eredivisie match between ADO Den Haag and Heerenveen, the 1X2 probabilities show ADO Den Haag at 31%, a draw at 25%, and Heerenveen at 44%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance. Heerenveen's recent form includes 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 6 matches, while ADO Den Haag has 1 win and 2 draws in the same period.
The model predicts a 60% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance for both teams to score. ADO Den Haag has expected goals of 1.49, while Heerenveen has 1.60. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating uncertainty in the outcome. Factors such as unexpected player performances or defensive errors could affect these predictions.
ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen: model vs market
| Source | ADO Den Haag | Draw | Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 26% | 39% |
| Market | 30% | 25% | 46% |
| Published | 31% | 25% | 44% |
| Edge | +5% | +1% | -6% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.10, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Heerenveen, 16 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag | 3.15 | 3.17 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.82 | 3.81 | -0.01 |
| Heerenveen | 2.02 | 2.05 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
ADO Den Haag and Heerenveen expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.08
- Attack rating (ADO Den Haag / Heerenveen)
- 1.03 / 0.99
- Defence rating (ADO Den Haag / Heerenveen)
- 1.07 / 0.80
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: ADO Den Haag goals. Columns: Heerenveen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ADO Den Haag | 31% | 3.24 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.00 | |
| Heerenveen | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.47 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.59 |
| No | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Double chance | 1X (ADO Den Haag or draw) | 56% | 1.79 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Heerenveen) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Handicap -1 | Heerenveen win by 2+ | 20% | 4.93 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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ADO Den Haag and Heerenveen recent form
ADO Den Haag
1W 3D 2L
Heerenveen
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
ADO Den Haag at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Heerenveen away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: ADO Den Haag at home only, Heerenveen away only.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
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- Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle 2026-10-24
- Willem II v Cambuur — match page 2026-10-24
- Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior 2026-10-25
- PSV Eindhoven v Feyenoord — match page 2026-10-25
- NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax 2026-10-25
- AZ Alkmaar v Twente — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- ADO Den Haag, previous: ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven: odds and pick
- ADO Den Haag, next: Excelsior '31 vs ADO Den Haag prediction
- Heerenveen, previous: Heerenveen v Excelsior analysis
- Heerenveen, next: Excelsior Maassluis – Heerenveen, 2026-10-28