AZ Alkmaar vs Twente preview
In the Eredivisie fixture between AZ Alkmaar and Twente, the 1X2 probabilities show AZ Alkmaar at 41%, Twente at 33%, and a draw at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a probability of 8%. Both teams to score stands at 58%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 53%.
AZ Alkmaar's recent form includes 2 draws and 3 losses in their last 6 matches, while Twente has won 4 of their last 6 games. The expected goals are closely matched, with AZ Alkmaar at 1.40 and Twente at 1.39. A potential upset could occur if AZ Alkmaar improves their form or if Twente's winning streak continues.
AZ Alkmaar vs Twente: model vs market
| Source | AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Twente |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 28% | 36% |
| Market | 43% | 25% | 32% |
| Published | 41% | 26% | 33% |
| Edge | -6% | +3% | +4% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.32, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
AZ Alkmaar vs Twente odds movement
Median bookmaker price on AZ Alkmaar, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | 2.23 | 2.19 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 3.76 | 3.77 | +0.01 |
| Twente | 2.77 | 2.89 | +0.12 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
AZ Alkmaar and Twente expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.79
- Attack rating (AZ Alkmaar / Twente)
- 1.05 / 1.13
- Defence rating (AZ Alkmaar / Twente)
- 0.81 / 0.74
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
AZ Alkmaar vs Twente score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: AZ Alkmaar goals. Columns: Twente goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
AZ Alkmaar vs Twente goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for AZ Alkmaar vs Twente
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AZ Alkmaar | 41% | 2.43 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.92 | |
| Twente | 33% | 3.00 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.73 |
| No | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Double chance | 1X (AZ Alkmaar or draw) | 67% | 1.50 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Twente) | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Handicap -1 | AZ Alkmaar win by 2+ | 17% | 5.75 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
AZ Alkmaar and Twente recent form
AZ Alkmaar
2W 2D 2L
Twente
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
AZ Alkmaar at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Twente away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: AZ Alkmaar at home only, Twente away only.
AZ Alkmaar vs Twente head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: AZ Alkmaar 1 · draws 1 · Twente 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | AZ Alkmaar | 2-2 | Twente | Eredivisie |
| 2026-02-03 | AZ Alkmaar | 2-1 | Twente | KNVB Beker |
| 2025-11-30 | Twente | 1-0 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
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Before and after this match
- AZ Alkmaar, previous: Ararat-Armenia – AZ Alkmaar, 2026-10-22
- AZ Alkmaar, next: AZ Alkmaar – Juventus, 2026-11-05
- Twente, previous: Lincoln Red Imps FC – Twente, 2026-10-22
- Twente, next: Twente vs Pafos prediction