Groningen vs Emmen preview
In the KNVB Beker fixture between Groningen and Emmen, the model gives Emmen a 43% chance to win compared to Groningen's 34%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.80 for Groningen and 2.03 for Emmen.
Both teams to score has a 73% probability, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 74%. However, Groningen's recent form shows 2 wins in their last 6 matches, which could impact their performance. Emmen has performed slightly better, with 3 wins in the same period. This difference in form could lead to unexpected results.
Groningen vs Emmen: model vs market
| Source | Groningen | Draw | Emmen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 23% | 43% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 34% | 23% | 43% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Groningen and Emmen expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.83
- Attack rating (Groningen / Emmen)
- 1.09 / 0.98
- Defence rating (Groningen / Emmen)
- 1.02 / 0.84
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Groningen vs Emmen score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Groningen goals. Columns: Emmen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Groningen vs Emmen goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 73%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Groningen vs Emmen
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Groningen | 34% | 2.94 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.41 | |
| Emmen | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.36 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.78 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73% | 1.36 |
| No | 27% | 3.74 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Groningen or draw) | 57% | 1.76 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Emmen) | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Handicap -1 | Emmen win by 2+ | 25% | 4.01 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Groningen and Emmen recent form
Groningen
2W 2D 2L
Emmen
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
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Before and after this match
- Groningen, previous: NEC Nijmegen – Groningen, 2026-10-25
- Emmen, previous: Vitesse vs Emmen prediction