Vitesse vs Emmen preview
In the Eerste Divisie fixture between Vitesse and Emmen, the 1X2 probabilities show Vitesse at 43%, Emmen at 31%, and a draw at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which has a 9% chance according to our model.
Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Vitesse winning 2 out of their last 6 matches and Emmen winning 3 out of 6. The expected goals are 1.70 for Vitesse and 1.41 for Emmen, suggesting a competitive match. While the model predicts a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams to score at 63%, factors like inconsistent performances could impact the outcome.
Vitesse vs Emmen: model vs market
| Source | Vitesse | Draw | Emmen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 26% | 32% |
| Market | 39% | 26% | 35% |
| Published | 39% | 26% | 35% |
| Edge | +2% | +1% | -3% |
- The market prices Vitesse below the model: +2.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.45, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Vitesse vs Emmen odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Vitesse, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse | 2.38 | 2.38 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.62 | 3.60 | -0.02 |
| Emmen | 2.60 | 2.62 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Vitesse and Emmen expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.00
- Attack rating (Vitesse / Emmen)
- 0.92 / 1.15
- Defence rating (Vitesse / Emmen)
- 0.83 / 0.98
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Vitesse vs Emmen score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Vitesse goals. Columns: Emmen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Vitesse vs Emmen goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Vitesse vs Emmen
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vitesse | 39% | 2.53 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.86 | |
| Emmen | 35% | 2.89 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.63 |
| No | 39% | 2.58 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Vitesse or draw) | 65% | 1.53 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Emmen) | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Handicap -1 | Vitesse win by 2+ | 21% | 4.67 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Vitesse and Emmen recent form
Vitesse
2W 1D 3L
Emmen
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Vitesse at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Emmen away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 2.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Vitesse at home only, Emmen away only.
Vitesse vs Emmen head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Vitesse 1 · draws 1 · Emmen 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Vitesse | 3-3 | Emmen | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-09-30 | Emmen | 2-4 | Vitesse | Eerste Divisie |
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Before and after this match
- Vitesse, previous: FC Eindhoven vs Vitesse: odds and pick
- Vitesse, next: VVV Venlo v Vitesse analysis
- Emmen, previous: Emmen – Almere City FC, 2026-10-17
- Emmen, next: Groningen – Emmen, 2026-10-29