Den Bosch vs MVV preview
In the Eerste Divisie match between Den Bosch and MVV, the 1X2 probabilities show Den Bosch at 53% to win, while MVV stands at 21%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with Den Bosch's expected goals of 1.78 compared to MVV's 1.05.
Den Bosch's recent form includes two wins and a draw in their last five matches, while MVV has struggled with only one win and four losses. This could impact the likelihood of both teams scoring, which our model predicts at 55%. If Den Bosch underperforms or MVV finds an unexpected resurgence, the outcome may differ from the expected results.
Den Bosch vs MVV: model vs market
| Source | Den Bosch | Draw | MVV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59% | 23% | 18% |
| Market | 55% | 22% | 23% |
| Published | 56% | 22% | 22% |
| Edge | +4% | +1% | -5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 1.05.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Den Bosch below the model: +3.7 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.70, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Den Bosch vs MVV odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Den Bosch, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Den Bosch | 1.68 | 1.67 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 4.15 | 4.25 | +0.10 |
| MVV | 4.00 | 4.00 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Den Bosch and MVV expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.08
- Attack rating (Den Bosch / MVV)
- 0.85 / 0.71
- Defence rating (Den Bosch / MVV)
- 1.01 / 1.33
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Den Bosch vs MVV score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Den Bosch goals. Columns: MVV goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Den Bosch vs MVV goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Den Bosch vs MVV
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Den Bosch | 56% | 1.78 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.54 | |
| MVV | 22% | 4.59 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.74 |
| No | 43% | 2.35 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Den Bosch or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or MVV) | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Handicap -1 | Den Bosch win by 2+ | 36% | 2.75 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Den Bosch and MVV recent form
Den Bosch
3W 1D 2L
MVV
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Den Bosch at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
MVV away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-3
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 2.80
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Den Bosch at home only, MVV away only.
Den Bosch vs MVV head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Den Bosch 1 · draws 0 · MVV 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | Den Bosch | 1-2 | MVV | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-09-16 | MVV | 2-4 | Den Bosch | Eerste Divisie |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
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- Vitesse vs Emmen 2026-10-23
- NAC Breda v Heracles — match page 2026-10-23
- FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport 2026-10-23
- Almere City FC v Roda — match page 2026-10-23
- FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21 2026-10-23
- FC OSS v Jong Ajax — match page 2026-10-23
Before and after this match
- Den Bosch, previous: Den Bosch v FC OSS analysis
- Den Bosch, next: Rijnsburgse Boys vs Den Bosch prediction
- MVV, previous: MVV vs Heracles: odds and pick
- MVV, next: MVV vs Excelsior: odds and pick