De Graafschap vs Waalwijk preview
In the Eerste Divisie fixture between De Graafschap and Waalwijk, the 1X2 probabilities show Waalwijk at 44%, compared to De Graafschap's 31%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.51 for De Graafschap and 1.82 for Waalwijk.
Both teams to score stands at 66%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 65%. De Graafschap's recent form shows W-D-W-L-W-L, while Waalwijk has L-D-L-W-W-W. The head-to-head record is even with each team winning once in the last 2 matches. A different outcome could arise if De Graafschap improves their scoring efficiency or if Waalwijk's recent winning streak continues.
De Graafschap vs Waalwijk: model vs market
| Source | De Graafschap | Draw | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 25% | 42% |
| Market | 40% | 24% | 36% |
| Published | 38% | 24% | 38% |
| Edge | -7% | +1% | +6% |
- The market prices Waalwijk below the model: +6.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.70, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
De Graafschap and Waalwijk expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.17
- Attack rating (De Graafschap / Waalwijk)
- 0.91 / 0.97
- Defence rating (De Graafschap / Waalwijk)
- 1.20 / 0.90
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
De Graafschap vs Waalwijk score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: De Graafschap goals. Columns: Waalwijk goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
De Graafschap vs Waalwijk goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for De Graafschap vs Waalwijk
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | De Graafschap | 38% | 2.65 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.11 | |
| Waalwijk | 38% | 2.64 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.60 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.56 |
| No | 36% | 2.78 | |
| Double chance | 1X (De Graafschap or draw) | 62% | 1.61 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Waalwijk) | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Handicap -1 | Waalwijk win by 2+ | 23% | 4.41 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
De Graafschap and Waalwijk recent form
De Graafschap
3W 1D 2L
Waalwijk
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
De Graafschap at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-3
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 2.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- 52% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Waalwijk away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: De Graafschap at home only, Waalwijk away only.
De Graafschap vs Waalwijk head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: De Graafschap 1 · draws 0 · Waalwijk 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | De Graafschap | 2-4 | Waalwijk | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-11-09 | Waalwijk | 1-4 | De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
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- FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport 2026-10-23
- Almere City FC v Roda — match page 2026-10-23
- Den Bosch vs MVV — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21 2026-10-23
- FC OSS v Jong Ajax — match page 2026-10-23
Before and after this match
- De Graafschap, previous: Jong Ajax – De Graafschap, 2026-10-19
- De Graafschap, next: Roda vs De Graafschap prediction
- Waalwijk, previous: Waalwijk v FC Volendam analysis
- Waalwijk, next: Barendrecht vs Waalwijk: odds and pick