FC OSS vs Jong Ajax preview
In the Eerste Divisie fixture between FC OSS and Jong Ajax, the 1X2 probabilities show FC OSS at 73%, with a most likely scoreline of 2-0. FC OSS has an expected goals figure of 2.67, while Jong Ajax sits at 0.94. This suggests a strong advantage for FC OSS, particularly given their recent form of L-W-W-L-W-L compared to Jong Ajax's L-D-L-L-W-D.
However, the outcome could be impacted if Jong Ajax manages to improve their scoring, as there is a 57% chance for both teams to score. Additionally, while Over 2.5 goals has a high probability at 70%, any defensive errors from FC OSS could change the dynamics of the match.
FC OSS vs Jong Ajax: model vs market
| Source | FC OSS | Draw | Jong Ajax |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 73% | 17% | 10% |
| Market | 46% | 24% | 30% |
| Published | 53% | 22% | 25% |
| Edge | +27% | -7% | -20% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.66 vs 0.94.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices FC OSS below the model: +26.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
FC OSS vs Jong Ajax odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC OSS, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC OSS | 2.25 | 2.00 | -0.25 |
| Draw | 3.65 | 3.90 | +0.25 |
| Jong Ajax | 2.73 | 3.10 | +0.37 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC OSS and Jong Ajax expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.60
- Attack rating (FC OSS / Jong Ajax)
- 1.08 / 0.72
- Defence rating (FC OSS / Jong Ajax)
- 0.89 / 1.38
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC OSS vs Jong Ajax score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC OSS goals. Columns: Jong Ajax goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC OSS vs Jong Ajax goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC OSS vs Jong Ajax
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC OSS | 53% | 1.89 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.55 | |
| Jong Ajax | 25% | 4.00 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.30 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.74 |
| No | 43% | 2.35 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC OSS or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Jong Ajax) | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC OSS win by 2+ | 53% | 1.89 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FC OSS and Jong Ajax recent form
FC OSS
3W 0D 3L
Jong Ajax
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC OSS at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-1
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 2.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Jong Ajax away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 2.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC OSS at home only, Jong Ajax away only.
FC OSS vs Jong Ajax head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: FC OSS 1 · draws 1 · Jong Ajax 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | Jong Ajax | 1-2 | FC OSS | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-10-21 | FC OSS | 1-1 | Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- De Graafschap vs Waalwijk — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Vitesse vs Emmen 2026-10-23
- NAC Breda v Heracles — match page 2026-10-23
- FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport 2026-10-23
- Almere City FC v Roda — match page 2026-10-23
- Den Bosch vs MVV — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21 2026-10-23
Before and after this match
- FC OSS, previous: Den Bosch v FC OSS analysis
- FC OSS, next: PEC Zwolle vs FC OSS prediction
- Jong Ajax, previous: Jong Ajax – De Graafschap, 2026-10-19