NAC Breda vs Heracles preview
In the Eerste Divisie match between NAC Breda and Heracles, the 1X2 probabilities show NAC Breda at 38% and Heracles at 37%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, with an expected goals tally of 1.62 for NAC Breda and 2.20 for Heracles.
Both teams have shown strong recent form, with NAC Breda winning 4 of their last 6 matches and Heracles winning 5 of their last 6. The model suggests a high likelihood for Over 2.5 goals at 73% and both teams to score at 72%. However, if either team fails to convert their chances, the expected goals could lead to a different outcome.
NAC Breda vs Heracles: model vs market
| Source | NAC Breda | Draw | Heracles |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28% | 22% | 50% |
| Market | 41% | 25% | 33% |
| Published | 38% | 24% | 38% |
| Edge | -14% | -3% | +17% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.29, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
NAC Breda vs Heracles odds movement
Median bookmaker price on NAC Breda, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda | 2.22 | 2.25 | +0.03 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.70 | +0.10 |
| Heracles | 2.84 | 2.80 | -0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
NAC Breda and Heracles expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.82
- Attack rating (NAC Breda / Heracles)
- 1.15 / 1.53
- Defence rating (NAC Breda / Heracles)
- 0.97 / 0.79
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
NAC Breda vs Heracles score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: NAC Breda goals. Columns: Heracles goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
NAC Breda vs Heracles goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 72%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for NAC Breda vs Heracles
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NAC Breda | 38% | 2.63 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.10 | |
| Heracles | 38% | 2.67 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73% | 1.36 |
| Under 2.5 | 27% | 3.76 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72% | 1.39 |
| No | 28% | 3.59 | |
| Double chance | 1X (NAC Breda or draw) | 62% | 1.60 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Heracles) | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Handicap -1 | NAC Breda win by 2+ | 14% | 7.35 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
NAC Breda and Heracles recent form
NAC Breda
4W 1D 1L
Heracles
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
NAC Breda at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
Heracles away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 3.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 8 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 3.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: NAC Breda at home only, Heracles away only.
NAC Breda vs Heracles head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: NAC Breda 2 · draws 0 · Heracles 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Heracles | 0-1 | NAC Breda | Eredivisie |
| 2025-10-29 | NAC Breda | 1-4 | Heracles | KNVB Beker |
| 2025-09-20 | NAC Breda | 2-1 | Heracles | Eredivisie |
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Before and after this match
- NAC Breda, previous: Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda prediction
- NAC Breda, next: JOS Watergraafsmeer vs NAC Breda prediction
- Heracles, previous: MVV vs Heracles: odds and pick
- Heracles, next: De Treffers vs Heracles: odds and pick