FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht preview
In the fixture between FC Volendam and Jong Utrecht, the 1X2 probabilities show FC Volendam at 56%, with a likely scoreline of 2-1 (9%). FC Volendam has an expected goals figure of 2.36, while Jong Utrecht sits at 1.51. This indicates a strong chance for FC Volendam to secure a win.
However, the recent form of both teams could impact the outcome. FC Volendam has a mixed record with W-L-W-L-W-L, while Jong Utrecht has shown some resilience with L-L-W-W-D-L. The model suggests a high probability for Over 2.5 goals at 74% and both teams to score at 71%, which could lead to a more unpredictable match than the numbers suggest.
FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht: model vs market
| Source | FC Volendam | Draw | Jong Utrecht |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 21% | 23% |
| Market | 58% | 21% | 21% |
| Published | 57% | 21% | 22% |
| Edge | -2% | +1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.29 vs 1.45.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.63, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
FC Volendam and Jong Utrecht expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.74
- Attack rating (FC Volendam / Jong Utrecht)
- 1.09 / 1.03
- Defence rating (FC Volendam / Jong Utrecht)
- 0.96 / 1.17
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Volendam goals. Columns: Jong Utrecht goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Volendam | 57% | 1.74 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.76 | |
| Jong Utrecht | 22% | 4.65 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72% | 1.39 |
| Under 2.5 | 28% | 3.58 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.44 |
| No | 30% | 3.28 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Volendam or draw) | 78% | 1.27 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Jong Utrecht) | 43% | 2.35 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Volendam win by 2+ | 35% | 2.83 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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FC Volendam and Jong Utrecht recent form
FC Volendam
3W 1D 2L
Jong Utrecht
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Volendam at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.20
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
Jong Utrecht away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-4
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Volendam at home only, Jong Utrecht away only.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- De Graafschap vs Waalwijk — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Vitesse vs Emmen 2026-10-23
- NAC Breda v Heracles — match page 2026-10-23
- Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport 2026-10-23
- Almere City FC v Roda — match page 2026-10-23
- Den Bosch vs MVV — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21 2026-10-23
- FC OSS v Jong Ajax — match page 2026-10-23
Before and after this match
- FC Volendam, previous: Waalwijk v FC Volendam analysis
- FC Volendam, next: FC Eindhoven – FC Volendam, 2026-10-27
- Jong Utrecht, previous: Jong Utrecht v Roda analysis