Almere City FC vs Roda preview
In the fixture between Almere City FC and Roda, the 1X2 probabilities show Almere City FC at 55%, while Roda sits at 16%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 17% chance. Almere City FC has an expected goals figure of 1.42 compared to Roda's 0.65, indicating a stronger attacking performance.
However, recent head-to-head results favor Roda, who has won both of the last two encounters. Additionally, both teams to score has a probability of 37%, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 34%. These factors could influence the match outcome, especially considering Almere's recent form of W-W-L-W-W-L against Roda's D-L-W-D-W-D.
Almere City FC vs Roda: model vs market
| Source | Almere City FC | Draw | Roda |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 31% | 19% |
| Market | 50% | 24% | 25% |
| Published | 50% | 26% | 24% |
| Edge | 0% | +7% | -6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.33 vs 0.73.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.87, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Almere City FC vs Roda odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Almere City FC, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City FC | 1.84 | 1.85 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 3.80 | 3.80 | +0.00 |
| Roda | 3.62 | 3.66 | +0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Almere City FC and Roda expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.06
- Attack rating (Almere City FC / Roda)
- 1.12 / 0.72
- Defence rating (Almere City FC / Roda)
- 0.69 / 0.67
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Almere City FC vs Roda score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Almere City FC goals. Columns: Roda goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Almere City FC vs Roda goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 39%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Almere City FC vs Roda
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Almere City FC | 50% | 1.99 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.84 | |
| Roda | 24% | 4.19 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34% | 2.93 |
| Under 2.5 | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39% | 2.53 |
| No | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Almere City FC or draw) | 76% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Roda) | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Handicap -1 | Almere City FC win by 2+ | 24% | 4.09 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Almere City FC and Roda recent form
Almere City FC
4W 0D 2L
Roda
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Almere City FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-1
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 0.40
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 1.6 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Roda away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.40
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Almere City FC at home only, Roda away only.
Almere City FC vs Roda head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Almere City FC 0 · draws 0 · Roda 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-30 | Almere City FC | 1-2 | Roda | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-10-20 | Roda | 2-0 | Almere City FC | Eerste Divisie |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- De Graafschap vs Waalwijk — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Vitesse vs Emmen 2026-10-23
- NAC Breda v Heracles — match page 2026-10-23
- FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport 2026-10-23
- Den Bosch vs MVV — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21 2026-10-23
- FC OSS v Jong Ajax — match page 2026-10-23
Before and after this match
- Almere City FC, previous: Emmen – Almere City FC, 2026-10-17
- Almere City FC, next: Telstar vs Almere City FC prediction
- Roda, previous: Jong Utrecht v Roda analysis
- Roda, next: Roda vs De Graafschap prediction