Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport preview
In the Eerste Divisie match between Jong AZ and Helmond Sport, the 1X2 probabilities show Jong AZ at 57% to win, while Helmond Sport sits at 22%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 2-1, which occurs with a 9% probability. However, if Helmond Sport improves their recent form, where they have lost 4 of their last 5 matches, they could challenge Jong AZ's advantage.
Our model indicates a strong chance of Over 2.5 goals at 76% and both teams to score at 72%. Jong AZ has an expected goals figure of 2.46, while Helmond Sport's is 1.50. The recent head-to-head record shows both teams with 1 win each, adding an element of unpredictability to the match.
Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport: model vs market
| Source | Jong AZ | Draw | Helmond Sport |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 20% | 22% |
| Market | 57% | 21% | 22% |
| Published | 57% | 21% | 22% |
| Edge | +1% | -1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.45 vs 1.50.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Jong AZ, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-17.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jong AZ | 1.63 | 1.63 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.35 | 4.38 | +0.04 |
| Helmond Sport | 4.25 | 4.25 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Jong AZ and Helmond Sport expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.95
- Attack rating (Jong AZ / Helmond Sport)
- 1.26 / 0.84
- Defence rating (Jong AZ / Helmond Sport)
- 1.21 / 1.09
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Jong AZ goals. Columns: Helmond Sport goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 72%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jong AZ | 57% | 1.75 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.77 | |
| Helmond Sport | 22% | 4.56 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76% | 1.32 |
| Under 2.5 | 24% | 4.08 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72% | 1.39 |
| No | 28% | 3.54 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Jong AZ or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Helmond Sport) | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Handicap -1 | Jong AZ win by 2+ | 38% | 2.65 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Jong AZ and Helmond Sport recent form
Jong AZ
2W 2D 2L
Helmond Sport
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Jong AZ at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-3
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 1.4 at home.
Helmond Sport away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-5
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Jong AZ at home only, Helmond Sport away only.
Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Jong AZ 1 · draws 0 · Helmond Sport 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Jong AZ | 2-0 | Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-10-17 | Helmond Sport | 4-2 | Jong AZ | Eerste Divisie |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- De Graafschap vs Waalwijk — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Vitesse vs Emmen 2026-10-23
- NAC Breda v Heracles — match page 2026-10-23
- FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Almere City FC v Roda — match page 2026-10-23
- Den Bosch vs MVV — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21 2026-10-23
- FC OSS v Jong Ajax — match page 2026-10-23
Before and after this match
- Jong AZ, previous: VVV Venlo – Jong AZ, 2026-10-16
- Helmond Sport, previous: Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda prediction
- Helmond Sport, next: Helmond Sport v Willem II analysis