Ikorodu City vs Kwara United Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

Ikorodu City vs Kwara United: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Ikorodu City	Draw	Kwara United
Model	57%	25%	18%
Market	—	—	—
Published	57%	25%	18%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 0.92.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Ikorodu City and Kwara United expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.82Ikorodu City

0.92Kwara United

Total expected goals: 2.74
Attack rating (Ikorodu City / Kwara United): 1.18 / 1.18
Defence rating (Ikorodu City / Kwara United): 1.27 / 1.05

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Ikorodu City vs Kwara United score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.5% 4.9% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2% 1 10.7% 11.9% 5.0% 1.5% 0.4% 2 10.7% 9.8% 4.5% 1.4% 0.4% 3 6.5% 6.0% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2% 4+ 4.5% 4.1% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2%

Rows: Ikorodu City goals. Columns: Kwara United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Ikorodu City vs Kwara United goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%

Over 1.5 77%

Over 2.5 52%

Over 3.5 29%

Both teams to score: 51%
No goals (0–0): 8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Ikorodu City vs Kwara United

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Ikorodu City	57%	1.74
	Draw	25%	4.02
	Kwara United	18%	5.67
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	52%	1.94
	Under 2.5	48%	2.07
Both teams to score	Yes	51%	1.94
	No	49%	2.06
Double chance	1X (Ikorodu City or draw)	82%	1.21
	12 (either side)	75%	1.33
	X2 (draw or Kwara United)	43%	2.35
Handicap -1	Ikorodu City win by 2+	34%	2.96
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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