Ranchers Bees vs Niger Tornadoes Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

Ranchers Bees vs Niger Tornadoes: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Ranchers Bees	Draw	Niger Tornadoes
Model	57%	30%	14%
Market	—	—	—
Published	57%	30%	14%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.40 vs 0.56.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Ranchers Bees and Niger Tornadoes expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.40Ranchers Bees

0.56Niger Tornadoes

Total expected goals: 1.97
Attack rating (Ranchers Bees / Niger Tornadoes): 1.06 / 0.78
Defence rating (Ranchers Bees / Niger Tornadoes): 1.18 / 0.90

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Ranchers Bees vs Niger Tornadoes score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 15.1% 6.8% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 1 18.5% 12.2% 3.1% 0.6% 0.1% 2 13.8% 7.8% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 3 6.4% 3.6% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 3.1% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Ranchers Bees goals. Columns: Niger Tornadoes goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Ranchers Bees vs Niger Tornadoes goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 85%

Over 1.5 60%

Over 2.5 31%

Over 3.5 14%

Both teams to score: 34%
No goals (0–0): 15%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Ranchers Bees vs Niger Tornadoes

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Ranchers Bees	57%	1.77
	Draw	30%	3.37
	Niger Tornadoes	14%	7.25
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	31%	3.18
	Under 2.5	69%	1.46
Both teams to score	Yes	34%	2.97
	No	66%	1.51
Double chance	1X (Ranchers Bees or draw)	86%	1.16
	12 (either side)	70%	1.42
	X2 (draw or Niger Tornadoes)	43%	2.30
Handicap -1	Ranchers Bees win by 2+	29%	3.43
	Push (exactly one goal)	27%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

#	Welcome offer	Why it is here	Visit
1	50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.	M-PESA Paybill 290059 Daily Jackpot Live betting	Get offer
2	First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day Live betting around the clock 30+ markets on live events	Get offer
3	100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.	M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits Live in-play betting Android and iOS app	Get offer
4	200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day 30+ markets on live events 24/7 customer support	Get offer