Sporting Lagos vs Bendel Insurance Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

Sporting Lagos vs Bendel Insurance: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Sporting Lagos	Draw	Bendel Insurance
Model	62%	23%	15%
Market	—	—	—
Published	62%	23%	15%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.00 vs 0.88.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Sporting Lagos and Bendel Insurance expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.00Sporting Lagos

0.88Bendel Insurance

Total expected goals: 2.88
Attack rating (Sporting Lagos / Bendel Insurance): 1.03 / 1.41
Defence rating (Sporting Lagos / Bendel Insurance): 1.02 / 1.31

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Sporting Lagos vs Bendel Insurance score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.6% 3.9% 2.2% 0.6% 0.2% 1 10.2% 10.9% 4.4% 1.3% 0.3% 2 11.2% 9.9% 4.4% 1.3% 0.3% 3 7.5% 6.6% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2% 4+ 5.9% 5.2% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2%

Rows: Sporting Lagos goals. Columns: Bendel Insurance goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Sporting Lagos vs Bendel Insurance goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 79%

Over 2.5 55%

Over 3.5 33%

Both teams to score: 52%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Sporting Lagos vs Bendel Insurance

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Sporting Lagos	62%	1.60
	Draw	23%	4.40
	Bendel Insurance	15%	6.76
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	55%	1.82
	Under 2.5	45%	2.22
Both teams to score	Yes	52%	1.93
	No	48%	2.07
Double chance	1X (Sporting Lagos or draw)	85%	1.17
	12 (either side)	77%	1.29
	X2 (draw or Bendel Insurance)	38%	2.66
Handicap -1	Sporting Lagos win by 2+	39%	2.56
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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