Warri Wolves vs Inter Lagos Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

Warri Wolves vs Inter Lagos: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Warri Wolves	Draw	Inter Lagos
Model	54%	33%	13%
Market	—	—	—
Published	54%	33%	13%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.18 vs 0.45.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Warri Wolves and Inter Lagos expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.18Warri Wolves

0.45Inter Lagos

Total expected goals: 1.63
Attack rating (Warri Wolves / Inter Lagos): 0.67 / 0.75
Defence rating (Warri Wolves / Inter Lagos): 0.98 / 1.19

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Warri Wolves vs Inter Lagos score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 20.6% 7.7% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% 1 22.2% 11.4% 2.3% 0.3% 0.0% 2 13.7% 6.1% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 3 5.4% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 2.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Warri Wolves goals. Columns: Inter Lagos goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Warri Wolves vs Inter Lagos goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 79%

Over 1.5 49%

Over 2.5 22%

Over 3.5 8%

Both teams to score: 26%
No goals (0–0): 21%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Warri Wolves vs Inter Lagos

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Warri Wolves	54%	1.87
	Draw	33%	2.99
	Inter Lagos	13%	7.73
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	22%	4.46
	Under 2.5	78%	1.29
Both teams to score	Yes	26%	3.84
	No	74%	1.35
Double chance	1X (Warri Wolves or draw)	87%	1.15
	12 (either side)	67%	1.50
	X2 (draw or Inter Lagos)	46%	2.15
Handicap -1	Warri Wolves win by 2+	25%	4.04
	Push (exactly one goal)	29%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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